Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:43:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
47 0x4722…4fc4 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$779 (+44%) realized +$789 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +106% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +79% what you keep after slip
Net edge+79%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$253per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$260now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$174
crypto 27% +$566
sports 20% +$498
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+85.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +105.5% +85.9% 75% 75% +82.1%
≤30d 4 +105.5% +85.9% 75% 75% +82.1%
≤90d 4 +105.5% +85.9% 75% 75% +82.1%
all 4 +105.5% +85.9% 75% 75% +82.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +85.9% 75% +82.1%
10% +68.1% 75% +64.6%
15% +51.9% 75% +48.7%
20% +37.0% 75% +34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +101% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +105% · $-wt +101% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$355 vs −$164 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.48 per $1 lost it wins $6.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$260
Realized+$789
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage6d
Avg bet$253
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $270 $260 −$10 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$110 +210%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 24 $242 +$498 +206%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 23 $430 +$456 +106%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $169 −$164 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $163 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $278 1h
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals AND Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals AND Julián Quiñone BUY 4¢ $206 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres SELL San Diego Padres 100¢ $740 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 33¢ $1 2h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 32¢ $241 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $242 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $278 28h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 28h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 28h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 28h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 28h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 28h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 28h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 28h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 28h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 28h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 28h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $234 28h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $168 3d
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Co BUY 10¢ $114 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $259.62 · official $459.61 · 27 history records