Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:42:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
47 0x4726…ff2b sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$8 (-2%) realized +$31 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$5
crypto 15% +$38
other 9% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +19.3% +7.9% 50% 50% +11.5%
≤30d 16 +19.3% +7.9% 50% 50% +11.5%
≤90d 16 +19.3% +7.9% 50% 50% +11.5%
all 16 +19.3% +7.9% 50% 50% +11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.9% 50% +11.5%
10% -2.4% 44% +0.8%
15% -11.8% 44% -8.9%
20% -20.5% 44% -17.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$14 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 19
History coverage3d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Morocco 44¢ 20¢ $70 $31 −$39 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $31 +$85 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$9 +91%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 29 $20 −$16 -80%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $41 −$40 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $30 +$21 +70%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +18%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $18 +$17 +97%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $20 +$28 +140%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $30 −$1 -5%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $20 −$1 -4%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $20 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$13 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$15 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Morocco 45¢ $20 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Morocco 44¢ $20 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Morocco 43¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 4h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 26¢ $31 4h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 6¢ $4 8h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $41 9h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 28¢ $20 9h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY South Africa 34¢ $10 31h
South Africa vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 98¢ $20 31h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $30 31h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 AND South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 BUY 51¢ $20 31h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 AND South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 BUY 20¢ $10 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $20 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL Norway 53¢ $29 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Norway 54¢ $30 3d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 35¢ $20 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $19 3d
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY 50¢ $18 3d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $20 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.13 · official $26.34 · 34 history records