Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:19:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4728…6426 world 223 markets active 0h ago coverage 585d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ Covers last 585d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$24,339 (+1%) realized +$53,399 · open −$29,060
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate61%112W / 71L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,451per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$266,298now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 585d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% −$27,293
economics 25% +$36,561
world 23% −$6,611
other 11% −$1,961
sports 2% +$2,129
culture 1% −$2,840
finance 0% +$4,714
crypto 0% −$402
tech 0% +$785
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +14.3% +3.4% 60% 40% -20.7%
≤30d 37 +16.2% +5.1% 76% 41% -11.6%
≤90d 59 +19.4% +8.0% 81% 42% -4.2%
all 183 +13.2% +2.4% 61% 34% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.4% 34% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -7.4% 22% -15.6%
15% -16.4% 17% -23.8%
20% -24.6% 15% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$3,918) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late +43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,254 vs −$1,497 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

585d coverage
Net worth$266,298
Realized+$53,399
Unrealized−$29,060
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses112 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions40
Markets (closed)183 / 223
History coverage585d ⚠
Avg bet$7,451
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 84¢ $50,000 $84,250 +$34,250 (+68%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $18,574 $18,424 −$150 (-1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 78¢ 82¢ $17,355 $18,357 +$1,001 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 82¢ 82¢ $17,635 $17,656 +$21 (+0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $15,781 $16,062 +$281 (+2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 89¢ 100¢ $14,154 $15,762 +$1,608 (+11%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 16¢ $50,000 $15,750 −$34,250 (-68%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 44¢ 38¢ $13,203 $11,616 −$1,586 (-12%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 87¢ 100¢ $8,750 $9,970 +$1,220 (+14%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 72¢ 92¢ $7,504 $9,599 +$2,095 (+28%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 55¢ 100¢ $4,888 $8,883 +$3,995 (+82%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $4,662 $4,794 +$132 (+3%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? No 88¢ 98¢ $4,283 $4,748 +$465 (+11%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 76¢ 62¢ $5,498 $4,468 −$1,029 (-19%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 16¢ 100¢ $724 $4,437 +$3,713 (+513%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 91¢ 96¢ $3,105 $3,276 +$171 (+5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $2,953 $2,979 +$25 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Yes 59¢ 100¢ $1,644 $2,785 +$1,141 (+69%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 76¢ $2,368 $2,229 −$139 (-6%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 57¢ 28¢ $3,828 $1,846 −$1,982 (-52%)
Discord IPO before 2027? No 36¢ 38¢ $1,605 $1,706 +$100 (+6%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $1,389 $1,479 +$90 (+6%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 66¢ 57¢ $1,032 $899 −$133 (-13%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? No 81¢ 90¢ $810 $895 +$85 (+10%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 7¢ 17¢ $329 $755 +$427 (+130%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $18,240 −$4,231 -23%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3,586 +$324 +9%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $4,043 +$304 +8%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $177 +$39 +22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $6,650 +$350 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $6,204 +$1,155 +19%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 15 $4,366 +$378 +9%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 15 $4,869 −$4,869 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $7,746 +$2,711 +35%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $6,835 −$613 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $2,400 +$2,044 +85%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $6,555 +$1,000 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $1,111 +$1,111 +100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $2,355 +$2,089 +89%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $844 −$112 -13%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $5,473 −$815 -15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $4,772 −$3,689 -77%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $14,024 −$9,155 -65%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $111 +$445 +400%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $4,615 +$885 +19%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $1,970 +$171 +9%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean loca Jun 04 $2,687 +$247 +9%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $1,045 +$2,412 +231%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $13,110 +$2,354 +18%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $1,461 −$1,461 -100%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? Jun 01 $277 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $1,101 +$70 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $5,901 +$611 +10%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $187 +$21 +11%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $1,548 +$239 +15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,850 +$150 +5%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4,845 +$155 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $5,309 +$693 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $8,704 +$757 +9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026? May 29 $958 +$42 +4%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 22 $756 +$372 +49%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me May 18 $527 −$195 -37%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 18 $4,465 +$1,388 +31%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 18 $5,730 +$1,601 +28%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 18 $7,332 +$4,537 +62%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 24 $933 +$259 +28%
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 24 $6,553 +$5,711 +87%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $131 +$4 +3%
Will NewJeans perform again by March 31? Apr 01 $176 +$22 +12%
Will Pure Storage (PSTG) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $280 +$21 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $43,386 +$1,356 +3%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? Apr 01 $657 +$36 +5%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Apr 01 $660 +$40 +6%
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $1,032 +$121 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $32 3m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $12 26m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $4 27m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $4 27m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $63 29m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 53¢ $4,657 30m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $12 30m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 31m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 31m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $30 31m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 32m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 32m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $1,039 32m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $3,111 55m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 55m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $3,522 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $5 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $176 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $88 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $120 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $190 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $38 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 53¢ $5,300 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $22 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $56 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $266,298.24 · official $266,298.25 (match) · 3500 history records