Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:15:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
47 0x472a…93a8 politics 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 247d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%2W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 97% −$7
other 2% −$6
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -4.9% -13.9% 6% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -4.9% -13.9% 6% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 16 -4.9% -13.9% 6% 0% -9.7%
all 19 -6.1% -15.1% 11% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -23.2% 0% -18.5%
15% -30.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -37.4% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses2 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage247d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $178 $178 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $347 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $220 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $208 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $418 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $169 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $180 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $2 $0 -21%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $189 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $2 $0 -19%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $180 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $179 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $179 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $2 $0 -19%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $2 $0 -17%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Jun 19 $15 $0 +0%
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 07 $15 −$6 -39%
USDT depeg in 2025? Nov 30 $19 $0 +0%
Will the next Dutch government be CDA + D66? Oct 21 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $178 14m
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 1h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 12h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $178 14h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 15h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 17h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 17h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $238 22h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 23h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $239 23h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 27h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 29h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 30h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 30h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 32h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 33h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 34h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 34h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 36h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 37h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 38h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 40h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $188 41h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 42h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 42h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 42h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 43h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 44h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 46h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.29 · official $178.29 (match) · 62 history records