Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:38:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
47 0x472c…a000 sports 401 markets active 1h ago coverage 276d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$692 (+3%) realized +$517 · open +$175
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%213W / 184L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1,289now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$83
7 days−$184
14 days−$216
30 days−$216
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 36% +$1,059
finance 20% +$33
other 16% −$266
world 12% −$208
politics 12% +$97
crypto 2% +$49
tech 1% +$75
economics 1% −$247
culture 0% +$67
weather 0% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -14.9% -23.0% 50% 50% -52.9%
≤30d 3 -43.2% -48.6% 33% 33% -56.5%
≤90d 12 -9.7% -18.3% 67% 67% -14.6%
all 397 +1.4% -8.2% 54% 51% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 51% -7.7%
10% -17.0% 46% -16.5%
15% -25.0% 40% -24.6%
20% -32.4% 34% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$36 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

276d coverage
Net worth$1,289
Realized+$517
Unrealized+$175
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses213 / 184
Open positions4
Markets (closed)397 / 401
History coverage276d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 397 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 80¢ 100¢ $557 $696 +$140 (+25%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 80¢ 100¢ $244 $305 +$61 (+25%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 56¢ 86¢ $112 $172 +$60 (+54%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 67¢ 38¢ $201 $116 −$86 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $117 +$83 +70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $270 −$266 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $33 −$32 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 12 $70 +$30 +43%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? May 12 $391 +$109 +28%
Trove founder arrested by March 31? Apr 02 $44 +$9 +20%
ICE shooter charged by March 31? Apr 02 $73 +$27 +37%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 02 $882 +$222 +25%
Will Zootopia 2 be the 2025 film with the highest domestic gross on Ma Apr 02 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Apr 02 $460 −$460 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 30 $347 +$47 +14%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 23 $269 +$126 +47%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by March 13? Mar 16 $9 +$1 +14%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 13? Mar 16 $100 +$36 +36%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by March 13? Mar 12 $117 −$85 -73%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? Mar 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 09 $82 −$82 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 09 $49 −$49 -100%
Big Game: Player/HC to cry during National Anthem? Mar 09 $94 −$94 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Mar 09 $166 −$166 -100%
U.S. strike on Nigeria by February 28, 2026? Mar 06 $76 +$24 +32%
Iran strike on US military by February 28? Feb 28 $170 +$24 +14%
Another US bank failure by February 28? Feb 20 $75 +$25 +33%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 18 $164 +$24 +15%
US strikes Iran by Feb 28 Odds >30% by Friday? Feb 07 $90 −$90 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? Feb 07 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Witkoff meet with Iranian officials by February 28? Feb 06 $36 +$50 +139%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $148 +$50 +34%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $258 +$46 +18%
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? Jan 31 $130 −$104 -80%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 31 $152 +$36 +24%
Djokovic vs. Sinner: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jan 31 $62 −$62 -100%
GPT ads by January 31? Jan 31 $77 +$21 +28%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 31 $78 +$20 +26%
Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by Jan 31? Jan 31 $96 +$3 +3%
Federal Judge rules against Operation Metro Surge by Friday? Jan 30 $148 +$22 +15%
Alcaraz vs. Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jan 30 $45 +$34 +76%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of January? Jan 29 $27 +$2 +8%
Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 29? Jan 29 $80 +$18 +22%
Trump deploys active duty troops to Minnesota by Jan 31? Jan 29 $123 +$40 +32%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jan 26 $78 +$21 +27%
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by January 25, 2026? Jan 26 $119 +$80 +67%
Alcaraz vs. Paul: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jan 25 $55 +$45 +82%
US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026? Jan 25 $82 +$17 +21%
US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026? Jan 25 $176 +$22 +13%
Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Tomas Machac Jan 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Musetti vs. Machac: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jan 24 $4 +$2 +64%
Zandschulp vs. Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jan 24 $120 +$80 +67%
Australian Open Men's: Daniil Medvedev vs Fabian Marozsan Jan 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Tiafoe vs. Minaur: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jan 23 $14 +$20 +138%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $203 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $117 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 56¢ $150 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $119 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $33 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $195 38d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $80 38d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $8 38d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $18 38d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $18 38d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $164 39d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? BUY No 70¢ $70 77d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? BUY No 75¢ $75 78d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? BUY No 82¢ $36 79d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? BUY No 82¢ $46 79d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? BUY No 82¢ $0 79d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? BUY No 80¢ $80 79d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $76 79d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY No 73¢ $50 79d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY No 73¢ $23 79d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? BUY No 84¢ $84 79d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? BUY No 70¢ $70 79d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $81 79d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $87 79d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? BUY No 88¢ $6 81d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? BUY No 88¢ $257 81d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? BUY No 88¢ $70 81d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? BUY No 88¢ $99 81d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? BUY No 88¢ $114 81d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? SELL Yes 98¢ $345 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,288.58 · official $1,288.58 (match) · 1443 history records