Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:29:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
47 0x472c…5ae2 sports 363 markets active 0h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$387 (+2%) realized +$446 · open −$59
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%197W / 164L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$157est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$705
7 days+$1,090
14 days+$1,173
30 days+$1,173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$276
other 1% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +28.5% +16.3% 66% 63% +28.4%
≤30d 48 +20.9% +9.3% 62% 60% +21.7%
≤90d 180 +5.9% -4.2% 54% 53% -0.5%
all 361 +8.4% -1.9% 55% 53% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 53% -7.7%
10% -11.3% 51% -16.6%
15% -19.9% 45% -24.6%
20% -27.7% 38% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$54 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized+$446
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses197 / 164
Est. fees paid−$157
Open positions2
Markets (closed)361 / 363
History coverage148d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 361 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Over 52¢ 52¢ $88 $88 +$1 (+1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Over 75¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $171 +$213 +124%
Kawkab AC vs. IR Tanger: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $41 −$41 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 $0 -1%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $65 +$4 +7%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $46 +$44 +96%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $125 +$74 +59%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $33 +$17 +51%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $12 +$21 +170%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $43 +$57 +133%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $192 +$145 +75%
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 16 $38 +$4 +11%
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 16 $37 +$10 +28%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $50 +$21 +41%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $180 +$70 +39%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $143 +$116 +81%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $31 +$69 +223%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $33 −$32 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $135 +$64 +47%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $39 +$96 +249%
Exact Score: São Bernardo FC 0 - 0 SC Recife? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $61 −$61 -100%
ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Dinko Dinev Jun 13 $31 +$9 +31%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$32 +158%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $80 −$64 -80%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $261 +$161 +61%
COD Meknès vs. RCA Zemamra: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $112 +$146 +130%
OC Safi vs. Kawkab AC: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $80 −$80 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $82 −$81 -98%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Varvara Lepchenko Jun 11 $48 +$33 +68%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $51 −$3 -6%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $42 −$42 -100%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $154 +$150 +98%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $121 +$31 +25%
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. AS FAR: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $59 −$59 -100%
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. AS FAR: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $35 +$25 +70%
Liberia vs. Sierra Leone: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $50 +$150 +300%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $106 +$19 +18%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $245 +$43 +17%
DR Congo vs. Chile: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $50 +$50 +98%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $67 +$33 +49%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $117 +$33 +28%
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $59 −$59 -100%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $32 −$32 -100%
China PR vs. Thailand: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $98 −$98 -100%
Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Both Teams to Score May 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: Both Teams to Score May 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $29 11m
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $4 12m
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $54 16m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 SELL Over 53¢ $11 54m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $75 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $384 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $77 2h
Kawkab AC vs. IR Tanger: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $29 6h
Kawkab AC vs. IR Tanger: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $12 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $25 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 8h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 88¢ $17 8h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 75¢ $10 8h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 73¢ $5 8h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 91¢ $21 8h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 88¢ $10 8h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 88¢ $10 8h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 88¢ $4 8h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 88¢ $4 8h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 88¢ $20 8h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 88¢ $2 8h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 84¢ $10 9h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 84¢ $10 9h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 85¢ $10 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $94 10h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $90 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $200 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $46 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.47 · official $88.47 (match) · 1314 history records