Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:39:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

47 0x472c…020a other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$98 (+12%) realized +$99 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip

Net edge-23%after slip

Net WR41%break-even

Win rate45%10W / 12L

Drawdown57%max

Avg bet$37per market

Trades / day11.9pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit48%portable

Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +41%

net ROI/market (all)-16.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	-8.0%	-16.8%	45%	41%	+1.4%
≤30d	22	-8.0%	-16.8%	45%	41%	+1.4%
≤90d	22	-8.0%	-16.8%	45%	41%	+1.4%
all	22	-8.0%	-16.8%	45%	41%	+1.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.9 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-16.8%	41%	+1.4%
10%	-24.7%	36%	-8.3%
15%	-32.0%	27%	-17.2%
20%	-38.7%	23%	-25.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

10% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -8% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +4% → late -20% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$27 vs −$15 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$80

Realized+$99

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)45%

Wins / losses10 / 12

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)22 / 23

History coverage3d

Avg bet$37

Trades / day11.9

Drawdown57%

Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	53¢	52¢	$81	$80	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Jun 18	$5	+$1	+15%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$84	+$33	+40%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	Jun 17	$22	−$21	-98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$83	+$22	+27%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$44	+$38	+86%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$91	−$47	-51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$86	+$5	+6%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 17	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$61	+$32	+52%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Jun 16	$15	−$15	-98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$61	+$14	+23%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$7	−$6	-79%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 16	$29	+$49	+172%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$31	−$31	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-94%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 15	$20	+$43	+213%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$35	−$22	-62%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$15	−$10	-68%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$19	+$35	+181%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$28	−$9	-32%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	BUY Down	86¢	$5	1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$82	1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$22	12h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$84	12h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$105	13h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	78¢	$83	15h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	53¢	$44	16h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	38¢	$44	16h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$91	24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	BUY Down	59¢	$5	25h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$91	29h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	29h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	94¢	$86	29h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$15	35h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	65¢	$61	35h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$75	38h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	38h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	81¢	$61	39h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$10	39h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	4¢	$2	39h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	18¢	$7	39h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	40¢	$31	2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	36¢	$29	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	BUY Up	3¢	$5	2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$64	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	10¢	$1	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	40¢	$5	2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	14¢	$5	2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	42¢	$15	2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	31¢	$20	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.24 · official $80.24 (match) · 41 history records