Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:47:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
47 0x472d…2e27 sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$927 (-73%) realized −$927 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$887
sports 30% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-50.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -40.2% -45.9% 45% 45% -73.1%
≤30d 12 -45.2% -50.4% 42% 42% -74.0%
≤90d 12 -45.2% -50.4% 42% 42% -74.0%
all 12 -45.2% -50.4% 42% 42% -74.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.4% 42% -74.0%
10% -55.2% 42% -76.5%
15% -59.5% 8% -78.7%
20% -63.5% 0% -80.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -71% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -71% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$142 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$927
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage7d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $804 −$800 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $20 +$7 +34%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $70 +$18 +26%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $80 −$80 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $60 +$15 +24%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $40 −$40 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 67¢ $101 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 26¢ $31 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 35¢ $18 5h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $20 22h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $20 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $804 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $80 6d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 74¢ $20 6d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $10 6d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $70 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $60 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 63¢ $40 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records