Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:25:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
47 0x472e…15b4 world 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% −$2
other 19% −$1
weather 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 -0.7% -10.1% 12% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 8 -0.7% -10.1% 12% 0% -10.0%
all 18 -3.0% -12.2% 50% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 0% -10.1%
10% -20.6% 0% -18.7%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage458d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $56 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $32 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $35 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $19 −$1 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 28 $9 $0 +4%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +2%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? Apr 18 $9 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Apr 01 $5 $0 -6%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ontario resume electricity surcharge to the U.S. by next Friday? Mar 23 $11 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 14-21? Mar 17 $2 −$1 -55%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 52-53°F on March 17? Mar 17 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $35 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $35 3h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $27 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $32 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $17 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $32 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $32 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 53¢ $35 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 53¢ $35 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $32 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $6 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $26 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $35 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $35 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $29 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $3 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $33 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $14 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $19 16d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? SELL No 100¢ $9 354d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? BUY No 99¢ $2 380d
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? BUY No 99¢ $1 411d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? BUY No 96¢ $9 425d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? SELL No 100¢ $9 425d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 49 history records