Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:32:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x472e…e4a7 crypto 886 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (165 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,048 (+5%) realized +$2,048 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate90%794W / 92L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day165.4pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$108
other 40% −$66
sports 6% +$193
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (165 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 124 +5.6% -4.5% 89% 15% -8.8%
≤30d 886 +0.2% -9.4% 90% 18% -9.5%
≤90d 886 +0.2% -9.4% 90% 18% -9.5%
all 886 +0.2% -9.4% 90% 18% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover165.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 18% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 3% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 1% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$22 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,048
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses794 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)886 / 886
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$46
Trades / day165.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 886 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $843 +$14 +2%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $501 +$1 +0%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,961 +$39 +2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $796 −$142 -18%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$11 -56%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 17 $64 −$51 -80%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,287 +$13 +1%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,173 +$21 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,365 +$55 +4%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $308 −$4 -1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,920 +$50 +3%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $392 +$8 +2%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $976 +$24 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $422 +$23 +5%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,313 +$57 +2%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $38 +$4 +11%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $243 +$14 +6%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $932 +$39 +4%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $173 +$3 +2%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $107 +$93 +87%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $903 −$233 -26%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $895 +$39 +4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $117 +$8 +7%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $646 +$42 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $146 +$34 +23%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$17 +596%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $75 +$9 +12%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8 +$2 +28%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $290 +$30 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$11 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$13 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $19 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 94¢ $751 17m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $387 17m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $93 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $93 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $93 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $78 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $78 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $78 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $78 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $78 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 16¢ $16 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 41¢ $40 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 41¢ $42 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $91 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $91 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $91 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $91 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $91 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 91¢ $91 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $74 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 89¢ $89 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $72 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 99¢ $198 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 99¢ $28 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 99¢ $168 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 99¢ $59 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 99¢ $111 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 99¢ $198 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records