Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:41:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x472e…812b crypto 447 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,697 (-13%) realized −$1,676 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%159W / 287L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day22.7pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$80
14 days−$886
30 days−$2,691
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$2,099
sports 4% −$321
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +13.0% +2.3% 39% 34% -10.3%
≤30d 389 -31.6% -38.1% 31% 28% -32.8%
≤90d 446 -22.9% -30.3% 36% 32% -27.1%
all 446 -22.9% -30.3% 36% 32% -27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.3% 32% -27.1%
10% ← realistic here -36.9% 29% -34.1%
15% -43.0% 22% -40.5%
20% -48.6% 17% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$17 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$1,676
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses159 / 287
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)446 / 447
History coverage55d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 446 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $33 $12 −$21 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 162 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $17 +$12 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$6 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $39 +$41 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $48 −$30 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $48 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Jun 17 $42 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$5 +19%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $9 −$1 -14%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $9 −$8 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +26%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $66 −$27 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$8 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$9 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$10 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$4 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$16 +756%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$8 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$12 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$14 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$13 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $35 +$110 +318%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $39 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$9 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$30 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$22 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$6 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$17 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$11 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $8 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $9 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $8 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 7m
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $8 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $67 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $4 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $13 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $39 39m
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $4 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $15 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $9 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $28 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $14 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 55m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.95 · official $12.01 (match) · 1368 history records