Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:59:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

47
0x4730…382f
crypto · 535 markets active 0h ago
3.5score
+$829 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$645 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$92
Realized+$645
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses321 / 203
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions11
Markets (closed)524 / 535
History coverage77d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 11 History 524 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$133
7 days+$220
14 days+$267
30 days+$615
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes 42¢ 47¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 78¢ 80¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Down 58¢ 88¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+53%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes 37¢ 20¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-45%)
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-28%)
Will Pierre Gasly win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Flavio Cobolli 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe Hubert Hurkacz 60¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or higher on April 29? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Wolf" in May? Yes 68¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez Anastasia Potapova 64¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Andrea Pellegrino Andrea Pellegrino 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$11 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$11 +54%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $5 +$109 +2120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $41 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $41 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $41 +$10 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $41 −$8 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $72 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $41 −$24 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$10 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$4 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $61 −$32 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $41 +$11 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $61 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$15 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$21 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $71 −$15 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$3 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 94% +$235
sports 4% +$338
other 1% +$110
world 1% −$22
politics 0% −$5
weather 0% −$6
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 1h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 97¢ $114 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 +17.9% +6.6% 66% 56% -1.8%
≤30d 387 +12.2% +1.5% 64% 51% -5.5%
≤90d 524 +9.1% -1.3% 61% 50% -5.5%
all 524 +9.1% -1.3% 61% 50% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.3% 50% -5.5%
10% ← realistic here -10.7% 38% -14.5%
15% -19.3% 25% -22.8%
20% -27.2% 16% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.50 · official $87.48 · 1930 history records