Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:29:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4734…0979 other 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 203d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,265 (+38%) realized +$2,297 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%19W / 31L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$181
7 days+$52
14 days+$28
30 days+$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$1,963
politics 21% −$155
economics 9% +$144
world 0% −$4
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +27.7% +15.5% 57% 57% -2.9%
≤30d 15 +9.2% -1.2% 47% 40% +0.7%
≤90d 25 +20.1% +8.7% 52% 48% +40.9%
all 50 -10.4% -18.9% 38% 34% +29.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 34% +29.9%
10% -26.7% 24% +17.5%
15% -33.8% 20% +6.1%
20% -40.3% 16% -4.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +56% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +44% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$135 vs −$19 · ×7.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.4 per $1 lost it wins $4.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

203d coverage
Net worth$189
Realized+$2,297
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses19 / 31
Open positions12
Markets (closed)50 / 62
History coverage203d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 22¢ 27¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+20%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+5%)
Will the Central Bank of Colombia decrease the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the July meeting? No 89¢ 71¢ $28 $23 −$6 (-20%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $22 $19 −$3 (-14%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $22 $18 −$3 (-16%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $29 $18 −$11 (-39%)
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June meeting? Yes 58¢ 92¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+59%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-22%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $18 $14 −$4 (-25%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-55%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-22%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? Yes 17¢ 26¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 26 $153 +$166 +109%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the June meeting? Jun 25 $114 +$15 +13%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 Jun 23 $13 −$4 -29%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 23 $401 −$139 -35%
Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary polic Jun 22 $13 +$13 +99%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $16 −$6 -35%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 +$7 +72%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 18 $15 −$12 -81%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $80 −$2 -2%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce no change at the June meeti Jun 11 $52 +$26 +50%
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce a decrease at the June meet Jun 11 $283 +$23 +8%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $24 −$2 -8%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 31 $384 −$16 -4%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 31 $51 +$83 +164%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 14 $108 +$42 +39%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $133 +$25 +19%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 12 $201 −$62 -31%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the May meeting? May 04 $154 −$37 -24%
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce no change at the April meet May 03 $380 +$1,228 +323%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the May meeting? Apr 29 $288 +$552 +192%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 09 $12 −$11 -95%
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the April me Apr 09 $564 −$53 -9%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the May meeting? Apr 07 $33 +$5 +16%
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the March me Mar 31 $450 +$48 +11%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the March meeting? Mar 26 $7 +$2 +26%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Mar 26 $5 −$2 -50%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Mar 26 $15 −$8 -52%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Mar 26 $25 −$4 -14%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting? Mar 26 $453 +$240 +53%
Will Daniel Quintero win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Feb 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Feb 14 $17 −$14 -83%
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the January Jan 31 $329 +$58 +18%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jan 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Bank of Brazil lower the Selic rate after January 2026 meetin Jan 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Jan 28 $24 −$14 -57%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jan 28 $16 +$21 +129%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)? Jan 28 $18 −$5 -26%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Jan 15 $11 $0 -4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 15 $23 −$12 -52%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 14 $4 +$1 +24%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the February meeting? Jan 01 $10 −$4 -37%
Will Murray die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Dec 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Dec 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce no change at the December m Dec 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the December Dec 16 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Dec 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce a decrease at the December Dec 10 $27 −$1 -3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $13 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 SELL Yes 26¢ $22 1h
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June mee SELL Yes 91¢ $110 1h
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June mee SELL Yes 92¢ $60 1h
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June mee SELL Yes 93¢ $19 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 SELL Yes 27¢ $48 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 17¢ $59 1h
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June mee SELL Yes 94¢ $5 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 SELL Yes 1¢ $9 2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June mee SELL Yes 94¢ $1 3d
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June mee SELL Yes 94¢ $1 3d
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June mee SELL Yes 94¢ $1 3d
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June mee SELL Yes 94¢ $1 3d
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June mee SELL Yes 94¢ $1 3d
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June mee SELL Yes 94¢ $1 3d
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June mee SELL Yes 94¢ $1 3d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 SELL Yes 40¢ $70 3d
Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary polic SELL No 80¢ $1 4d
Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary polic SELL No 80¢ $7 4d
Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary polic SELL No 80¢ $1 4d
Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary polic SELL No 80¢ $2 4d
Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary polic SELL No 80¢ $4 4d
Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary polic SELL No 80¢ $6 4d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $22 4d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 8¢ $17 4d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 4d
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June mee SELL Yes 91¢ $476 4d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.55 · official $188.55 (match) · 511 history records