Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:53:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x473c…22fd sports 167 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (129 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$260 (-8%) realized −$7 · open −$253
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate46%71W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day129.0pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$522
other 10% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (129 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 154 -5.3% -14.3% 46% 35% -18.4%
≤30d 154 -5.3% -14.3% 46% 35% -18.4%
≤90d 154 -5.3% -14.3% 46% 35% -18.4%
all 154 -5.3% -14.3% 46% 35% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover129.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 35% -18.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 24% -26.3%
15% -30.0% 18% -33.4%
20% -36.9% 14% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$253
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses71 / 83
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions13
Markets (closed)154 / 167
History coverage3d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day129.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Under 82¢ 28¢ $197 $66 −$131 (-67%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Under 84¢ 69¢ $42 $34 −$8 (-18%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Under 92¢ 50¢ $46 $25 −$21 (-46%)
Spread: Canada (-4.5) Qatar 95¢ 46¢ $48 $23 −$25 (-52%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 Over 59¢ 100¢ $12 $20 +$8 (+69%)
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Qatar 87¢ 16¢ $44 $8 −$36 (-82%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Under 66¢ 8¢ $33 $4 −$29 (-87%)
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-36%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Over 15¢ 31¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+107%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-95%)
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Qatar? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $2 $0 +6%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $99 +$17 +18%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $46 +$4 +9%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $9 +$38 +410%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $43 −$43 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $12 −$2 -19%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $12 +$8 +64%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$1 -8%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $8 +$2 +32%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $30 −$2 -6%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $33 +$2 +5%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 18 $39 −$9 -23%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$5 +35%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 +$81 +1787%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $28 +$6 +22%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $19 +$20 +100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 +$5 +48%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $9 +$1 +14%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $42 +$6 +15%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $61 −$41 -67%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $12 −$2 -20%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $17 +$3 +16%
Spread: Colombia (-3.5) Jun 18 $9 +$1 +11%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $65 +$5 +8%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 84¢ $42 4m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 15¢ $0 16m
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $12 24m
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 35m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $46 36m
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 36m
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 40m
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 55m
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 55m
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 55m
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 82¢ $99 1h
Spread: Canada (-4.5) BUY Qatar 95¢ $48 1h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $8 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $25 2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 67¢ $47 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 83¢ $99 2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 2h
Spread: Canada (-3.5) BUY Qatar 87¢ $44 2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $74 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $6 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $19 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $38 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $46 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 86¢ $43 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182.63 · official $182.63 (match) · 548 history records