Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:55:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x473e…3455 other 135 markets active 2h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-0%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%19W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$16
14 days−$25
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$19
politics 25% −$14
crypto 14% −$14
sports 13% −$4
economics 7% −$1
culture 6% −$7
finance 3% −$6
world 3% −$3
tech 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.6% -10.1% 13% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 66 -0.7% -10.2% 6% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 116 -0.6% -10.0% 12% 0% -9.9%
all 134 -0.5% -10.0% 14% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses19 / 115
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage103d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 20 $16 $0 -2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $56 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $106 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $248 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $153 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $292 −$2 -1%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $88 −$1 -2%
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion Jun 18 $9 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $109 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $310 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $434 −$2 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 17 $55 −$1 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $123 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 16 $303 −$1 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $228 −$3 -1%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $45 −$1 -2%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $44 $0 +0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $229 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $308 −$1 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $107 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $63 $0 -1%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $154 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $461 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 11 $47 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $62 −$1 -2%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $53 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 11 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 10 $57 $0 -0%
Will Brazil score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $53 −$2 -3%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $264 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $306 $0 -0%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 09 $24 $0 -1%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 07 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $65 $0 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $36 −$1 -2%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $55 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $48 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? Jun 05 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $56 −$1 -2%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $41 −$1 -1%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $229 −$1 -1%
Will Stephen A. Smith be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee Jun 03 $20 $0 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $54 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 03 $52 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $42 1h
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $46 2h
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $46 8h
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 93¢ $15 8h
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $16 15h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $56 16h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $56 23h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $50 24h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $50 28h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $61 28h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $61 32h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $49 33h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $49 38h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $55 39h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $55 44h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $53 44h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $49 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $45 2d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $46 2d
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion SELL No 96¢ $9 2d
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion BUY No 97¢ $9 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $55 3d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $61 3d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $61 3d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $59 3d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $60 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $49 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.48 · official $41.48 (match) · 537 history records