trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? | Yes | 32¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 13 | $3 | −$2 | -51% |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | Jun 13 | $2 | $0 | -2% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? | Jun 13 | $5 | −$3 | -52% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 13 | $5 | −$2 | -44% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 13 | $5 | $0 | -4% |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 13 | $5 | $0 | -6% |
| Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $5 | +$13 | +262% |
| Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe | Jun 12 | $5 | −$5 | -96% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on | Jun 12 | $5 | −$5 | -96% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $5 | +$2 | +44% |
| Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? | Jun 11 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? | Jun 11 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 13 | -27.2% | -34.1% | 15% | 15% | -29.3% |
| ≤30d | 13 | -27.2% | -34.1% | 15% | 15% | -29.3% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -27.2% | -34.1% | 15% | 15% | -29.3% |
| all | 13 | -27.2% | -34.1% | 15% | 15% | -29.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -34.1% | 15% | -29.3% |
| 10% | -40.4% | 15% | -36.0% |
| 15% | -46.2% | 15% | -42.2% |
| 20% | -51.4% | 8% | -47.9% |