Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:13:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4745…99ea sports 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$128 (-31%) realized −$128 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate32%6W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$86
sports 50% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-44.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -38.1% -44.0% 32% 26% -29.6%
≤30d 19 -38.1% -44.0% 32% 26% -29.6%
≤90d 19 -38.1% -44.0% 32% 26% -29.6%
all 19 -38.1% -44.0% 32% 26% -29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.0% 26% -29.6%
10% -49.4% 26% -36.4%
15% -54.3% 26% -42.5%
20% -58.7% 26% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$19 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$128
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses6 / 13
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage3d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $25 +$40 +158%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$13 +123%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $29 −$28 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $15 +$1 +8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $61 +$59 +96%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $0 $0 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 +$27 +132%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $30 +$17 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 100¢ $66 16m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $23 52m
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 38¢ $25 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 21¢ $15 10h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 11h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 23h
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) BUY Türkiye 3¢ $5 23h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 10¢ $10 23h
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) BUY Türkiye 13¢ $5 24h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 31¢ $8 24h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 3 Türkiye? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 24h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 31¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 24h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) SELL Scotland 1¢ $1 25h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $20 27h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 39¢ $31 27h
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 45h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 45h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 26¢ $17 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 94¢ $120 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 23¢ $15 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $61 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $47 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $20 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $47 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $30 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records