Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:09:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
47 0x4748…fee0 crypto 425 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$55 (+2%) realized +$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate63%269W / 156L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$32
14 days+$51
30 days+$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 140 -3.8% -13.0% 64% 57% -13.0%
≤30d 422 +1.9% -7.8% 64% 61% -7.9%
≤90d 425 +1.6% -8.1% 63% 61% -8.6%
all 425 +1.6% -8.1% 63% 61% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 61% -8.6%
10% -16.9% 59% -17.3%
15% -24.9% 52% -25.3%
20% -32.3% 39% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses269 / 156
Open positions0
Markets (closed)425 / 425
History coverage72d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 425 Trades
no open positions (144 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$5 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$6 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$4 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$6 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$4 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 841 history records