Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:33:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
47 0x474c…6625 sports 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$649 (+13%) realized +$654 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%12W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$306
7 days−$23
14 days+$302
30 days+$302
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$99
other 44% +$248
crypto 5% +$148
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +7.7% -2.5% 56% 56% -10.1%
≤30d 22 +9.0% -1.4% 55% 55% -3.5%
≤90d 22 +9.0% -1.4% 55% 55% -3.5%
all 22 +9.0% -1.4% 55% 55% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.4% 55% -3.5%
10% -10.8% 55% -12.7%
15% -19.4% 55% -21.1%
20% -27.3% 50% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$194 vs −$202 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized+$654
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses12 / 10
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage8d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 56¢ 55¢ $197 $192 −$5 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $305 +$404 +132%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $405 +$185 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $300 −$296 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $355 +$294 +83%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $305 −$281 -92%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $389 −$386 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $249 +$139 +56%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $230 +$148 +64%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $199 −$196 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $100 +$99 +98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $197 −$194 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $77 +$69 +90%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $46 +$31 +68%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $105 +$174 +165%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $177 +$228 +128%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $142 −$140 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $150 +$170 +114%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $203 −$200 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $132 −$29 -22%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $262 +$384 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $199 17m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 97¢ $709 12h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $145 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $154 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 82¢ $291 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 16h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $305 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $97 19h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $649 40h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 41h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 55¢ $253 42h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports $24 44h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 49¢ $305 45h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $389 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 94¢ $388 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 60¢ $249 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 83¢ $196 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 74¢ $182 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $230 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $199 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 78¢ $120 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 56¢ $79 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 33¢ $100 4d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $197 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 59¢ $101 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 91¢ $146 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $77 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 59¢ $77 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.63 · official $191.63 (match) · 47 history records