Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:35:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x474d…6b5f weather 945 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$80 (+0%) realized +$81 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate89%837W / 105L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day33.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$19
14 days+$25
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -0.9% -10.3% 96% 1% -8.9%
≤30d 360 -2.6% -11.8% 93% 1% -9.0%
≤90d 942 -4.1% -13.2% 89% 1% -9.1%
all 942 -4.1% -13.2% 89% 1% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 1% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 0% -17.8%
15% -29.1% 0% -25.8%
20% -36.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$81
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses837 / 105
Open positions2
Markets (closed)942 / 945
History coverage70d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day33.6
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 942 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 20? No 99¢ 96¢ $50 $48 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 36°C or higher on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 20? Jun 18 $14 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C or below on June 20? Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 20? Jun 18 $59 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 20? Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $153 −$3 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C or higher on June 19 Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C or higher on June 19? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 19? Jun 17 $74 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C or below on June 19? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 19? Jun 17 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C or higher on June 19? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 19? Jun 17 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 19? Jun 17 $95 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +47%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 18? Jun 17 $71 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 18? Jun 17 $119 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 18? Jun 17 $119 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $24 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 18? Jun 16 $32 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 16 $89 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 53°F or below on June Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 16 $29 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C or higher on June 18? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 77°F or below on June 17? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 17? Jun 16 $87 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 17? Jun 15 $32 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C or higher on June 17? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 17? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 17? Jun 15 $59 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 17? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C or higher on June 17? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C on June 17? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or below on June 17? Jun 15 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 16? Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 14 $75 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 16? Jun 14 $48 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 30°C or higher on June Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C or higher on June 16? Jun 14 $60 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C or higher on June 16 Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on June 16? Jun 14 $59 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on June 16? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 14? Jun 14 $31 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on June 15? Jun 14 $38 +$1 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or below on June 15? Jun 14 $27 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Jun Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $14 1m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C or below on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $15 5m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $60 6m
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $15 21m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $30 27m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $30 55m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C or below on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $15 56m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $14 57m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? SELL No 71¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 69¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C or higher on June 19 SELL No 100¢ $14 12h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C or higher on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $20 12h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $74 12h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C or higher on June 19 SELL No 100¢ $6 12h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C or below on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $50 15h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $50 18h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $7 19h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C or higher on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $27 20h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $96 20h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C or higher on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $8 21h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C or higher on June 19 BUY No 99¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $74 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $95 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.75 · official $62.75 (match) · 2806 history records