Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:45:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
47 0x4753…41ad other 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$227 (+5%) realized +$213 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%25W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$558now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$359
7 days+$359
14 days+$359
30 days+$173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$228
sports 26% −$31
politics 0% −$7
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +38.9% +25.7% 100% 100% +22.3%
≤30d 15 -30.4% -37.0% 40% 40% +1.9%
≤90d 62 +10.1% -0.4% 40% 37% -4.4%
all 62 +10.1% -0.4% 40% 37% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.4% 37% -4.4%
10% -9.9% 37% -13.6%
15% -18.6% 24% -21.9%
20% -26.6% 21% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$29 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$558
Realized+$213
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses25 / 37
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions3
Markets (closed)62 / 65
History coverage47d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals No 62¢ 60¢ $312 $302 −$9 (-3%)
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals No 73¢ 80¢ $146 $161 +$15 (+10%)
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists No 71¢ 78¢ $86 $94 +$8 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 22 $387 +$113 +29%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $252 +$83 +33%
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals Jun 22 $199 +$61 +31%
Leandro Trossard: 1+ assists Jun 21 $78 +$19 +24%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Jun 21 $107 +$83 +77%
Will Santos FC vs. EC Vitória end in a draw? May 31 $16 −$16 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $19 −$2 -9%
Will Caracas FC vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw? May 27 $21 −$9 -44%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Barracas Central: O/U 3.5 May 27 $24 −$16 -66%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $47 −$46 -98%
Will Santos FC vs. CD Cuenca end in a draw? May 27 $99 −$99 -100%
Coritiba FBC vs. EC Bahia: O/U 3.5 May 26 $20 −$19 -97%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $23 −$22 -98%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista vs. CA Mineiro end in a draw? May 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $70 +$48 +68%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $9 −$9 -97%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $6 −$6 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Club Olimpia win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $53 +$32 +59%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $43 +$47 +109%
Will CA Boca Juniors vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw? May 20 $35 +$86 +246%
Fluminense FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 3.5 May 20 $22 +$13 +57%
Will Universidad Central de Venezuela FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? May 18 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $40 +$70 +174%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $29 −$25 -86%
Levante UD vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 1.5 May 17 $28 −$28 -97%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $16 −$16 -97%
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5 May 16 $77 +$23 +30%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $38 +$33 +87%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw? May 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Paysandu SC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last less than 2 seconds during the day of May 13 $8 −$7 -96%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $54 −$53 -98%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $124 +$58 +47%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $33 −$32 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $51 +$141 +276%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $259 −$188 -72%
Will CA Mineiro vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw? May 10 $62 +$21 +35%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin end in a draw? May 10 $87 +$22 +25%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $235 −$38 -16%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $34 +$62 +182%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $30 −$2 -8%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $49 +$33 +68%
Will EC Vitória win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $57 +$2 +3%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Coritiba FBC vs. SC Internacional end in a draw? May 09 $27 +$118 +438%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? May 09 $24 +$75 +319%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY No 63¢ $127 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY No 62¢ $63 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY No 62¢ $125 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists BUY No 71¢ $87 1h
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals BUY No 73¢ $147 2h
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists BUY No 77¢ $233 4h
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists BUY No 77¢ $125 5h
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists BUY No 75¢ $20 5h
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists BUY No 75¢ $6 5h
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists BUY No 75¢ $3 5h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL No 55¢ $335 5h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 31¢ $3 5h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 31¢ $0 5h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 31¢ $0 5h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 31¢ $9 5h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 31¢ $6 5h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 31¢ $13 5h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 31¢ $5 5h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 31¢ $4 5h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 31¢ $3 5h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 31¢ $14 5h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 31¢ $3 5h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 31¢ $2 5h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 46¢ $47 5h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 45¢ $18 5h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 45¢ $94 5h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 44¢ $31 5h
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals BUY No 74¢ $97 24h
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals BUY No 78¢ $102 25h
Leandro Trossard: 1+ assists BUY No 80¢ $78 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $557.88 · official $546.67 · 209 history records