Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:31:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4755…c9eb crypto 970 markets active 3d ago coverage 91d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 91d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$133 (-4%) realized −$133 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate52%504W / 466L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day34.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$7
30 days−$146
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$239
other 6% −$38
weather 4% −$31
tech 4% −$9
finance 2% +$2
sports 2% +$3
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -11.7% -20.1% 60% 35% -17.1%
≤30d 430 -15.7% -23.7% 49% 38% -20.9%
≤90d 891 -12.9% -21.2% 52% 42% -19.4%
all 970 -12.0% -20.4% 52% 42% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.4% 42% -17.8%
10% ← realistic here -28.0% 31% -25.7%
15% -35.0% 22% -32.9%
20% -41.4% 17% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$133
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses504 / 466
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)970 / 970
History coverage91d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day34.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 970 Trades
no open positions (138 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$5 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 09 $6 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records