Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:08:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
47 0x4758…229a politics 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%1W / 18L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$412per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$180now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 100% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -6.0% -15.0% 10% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -6.0% -15.0% 10% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 10 -6.0% -15.0% 10% 0% -9.7%
all 19 -5.5% -14.5% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 0% -9.7%
10% -22.7% 0% -18.4%
15% -30.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -37.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$727) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$180
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses1 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage139d
Avg bet$412
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $179 $179 −$0 (-0%)
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1 $0 -19%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $209 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $178 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $209 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1 $0 -19%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $209 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $169 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $2 $0 -21%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $179 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $298 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 06 $727 −$3 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 25 $1,876 −$4 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 09 $1,244 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 09 $18 −$2 -11%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 06 $1,688 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 06 $1,423 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 06 $16 −$1 -8%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 06 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 04 $10 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 19m
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 35m
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 54m
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 2h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 3h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 3h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 6h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 6h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 6h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $178 8h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 8h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 9h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 12h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 14h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 20h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 20h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 22h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 26h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 29h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $91 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $179 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $27 73d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $2 82d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $298 108d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $724 108d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $727 117d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,872 117d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,876 132d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,243 133d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $179.95 · official $179.95 (match) · 182 history records