Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:46:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
47 0x4758…d58b sports 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$132 (+14%) realized +$141 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate46%21W / 25L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$251now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$9
30 days+$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$88
other 10% −$4
world 6% +$47
politics 0% −$3
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +3.9% -6.0% 57% 57% -14.9%
≤30d 29 -1.8% -11.2% 48% 45% +4.4%
≤90d 40 -1.0% -10.4% 52% 40% +10.8%
all 46 -13.9% -22.1% 46% 35% +8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 35% +8.9%
10% -29.6% 35% -1.5%
15% -36.4% 30% -11.0%
20% -42.6% 28% -19.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$7 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$251
Realized+$141
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses21 / 25
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions8
Markets (closed)46 / 54
History coverage94d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 65¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 31¢ 30¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 21¢ 20¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 47¢ 46¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Australia vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 44¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $10 $6 −$4 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $20 +$13 +65%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $20 +$10 +50%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 +$14 +140%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 +$15 +73%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 +$30 +97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $31 +$46 +152%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $61 −$60 -99%
Will US Bank fail by end of 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -8%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$17 +165%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $20 +$15 +76%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 13 $20 +$13 +67%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $158 +$42 +26%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $2 $0 -19%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +63%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Jun 07 $1 $0 -5%
Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.1%? Jun 07 $1 $0 -35%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $41 +$32 +79%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $1 $0 +1%
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? May 18 $1 $0 +10%
Will Navi win IEM Atlanta 2026? May 18 $43 +$10 +23%
Will Navi make it to the IEM Atlanta 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $5 $0 +6%
Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $44 +$55 +124%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 16 $1 $0 +5%
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month? May 16 $1 +$2 +244%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Mar 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on March 31? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 65¢ $51 2h
Australia vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $30 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $30 2h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 31¢ $51 2h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 47¢ $30 2h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 21¢ $41 2h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 31¢ $20 3d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 12¢ $21 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 60¢ $20 5d
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY Iraq 66¢ $20 5d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 41¢ $10 5d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $20 6d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 57¢ $20 6d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $10 9d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $30 10d
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 39¢ $5 11d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $31 12d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes $2 13d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 69¢ $61 13d
Will US Bank fail by end of 2026? SELL No 88¢ $1 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $10 14d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 59¢ $20 14d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 56¢ $20 14d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 76¢ $55 15d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? SELL Yes $0 15d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 80¢ $102 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $2 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $2 15d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 68¢ $10 15d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $250.55 · official $250.57 (match) · 103 history records