Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:45:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4759…dc6e sports 468 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,511 (+1%) realized +$3,490 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate75%351W / 116L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$978per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Fees−$1,492est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days−$2,872
14 days−$9,586
30 days+$1,318
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$1,939
politics 0% +$280
other 0% +$74
crypto 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -10.4% -19.0% 52% 44% -20.8%
≤30d 241 -1.8% -11.2% 71% 34% -8.3%
≤90d 396 -0.1% -9.7% 73% 27% -8.4%
all 467 -0.1% -9.6% 75% 25% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 25% -8.4%
10% -18.2% 17% -17.1%
15% ← realistic here -26.1% 14% -25.1%
20% -33.4% 8% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$849) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$207 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized+$3,490
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses351 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$1,492
Open positions1
Markets (closed)467 / 468
History coverage123d
Avg bet$978
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 467 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan South Africa 83¢ 99¢ $108 $129 +$21 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands Jun 17 $105 +$2 +2%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $92 +$11 +12%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $43 +$27 +65%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $12 +$55 +471%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $34 +$6 +18%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $3 +$12 +388%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $10 +$13 +128%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $1,123 −$1,119 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,106 +$22 +2%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $1,147 −$18 -2%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $104 −$102 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $3,065 −$3,055 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $203 +$97 +48%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $400 +$100 +25%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $813 −$807 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $150 +$71 +47%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $800 +$200 +25%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Jun 12 $199 −$199 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $377 +$50 +13%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $3,960 −$288 -7%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $310 +$120 +39%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $200 +$151 +75%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $152 −$150 -99%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 12 $204 +$116 +57%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $199 −$199 -100%
Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 12 $4,010 +$526 +13%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $293 +$131 +45%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $513 +$157 +31%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $201 +$159 +79%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,033 +$167 +16%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $365 −$122 -34%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 11 $2,459 +$1,050 +43%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $101 +$109 +108%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $203 +$251 +124%
Ilkley: Luca Nardi vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 11 $1,451 +$15 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 83¢ $13 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 83¢ $24 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 83¢ $29 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 83¢ $41 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands SELL India 100¢ $108 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY India 98¢ $105 5h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 99¢ $103 6h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $6 12h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $7 12h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $14 12h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $65 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $43 23h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 95¢ $66 26h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 16¢ $12 26h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 13¢ $3 30h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 27¢ $3 30h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 37¢ $4 30h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 18¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 29¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 8¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 8¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 8¢ $0 2d
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY RUSTEC 20¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY DXA Esports 12¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY DXA Esports 12¢ $0 2d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 9¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 30¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie BUY illwill 25¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie BUY illwill 25¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 23¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.95 · official $128.95 (match) · 3002 history records