Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:07:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

47 0x475b…02b4 sports 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$764 (-4%) realized −$804 · open +$40

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +100% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +61% what you keep after slip

Net edge+61%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%6W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$429per market

Trades / day18.4pace

Fees−$195est.

Kalshi-fit52%portable

Net worth$5,020now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+81.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	+100.3%	+81.2%	33%	33%	-14.5%
≤30d	18	+100.3%	+81.2%	33%	33%	-14.5%
≤90d	18	+100.3%	+81.2%	33%	33%	-14.5%
all	18	+100.3%	+81.2%	33%	33%	-14.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover18.4 tr/day

realistic slip~11%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+81.2%	33%	-14.5%
10% ← realistic here	+63.9%	33%	-22.7%
15%	+48.0%	33%	-30.2%
20%	+33.5%	33%	-37.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 41% · top 2 58% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +100% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +4% → late +197% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$775 vs −$440 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.88 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$5,020

Realized−$804

Unrealized+$40

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses6 / 12

Est. fees paid−$195

Open positions4

Markets (closed)18 / 50

History coverage3d

Avg bet$429

Trades / day18.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	65¢	69¢	$1,300	$1,390	+$90 (+7%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	Belgium	65¢	64¢	$1,300	$1,290	−$10 (-1%)
Spread: Senegal (-1.5)	Senegal	60¢	58¢	$1,200	$1,170	−$30 (-2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	59¢	58¢	$1,180	$1,170	−$10 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$660	+$591	+90%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$1,454	−$798	-55%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	Jun 26	$3,195	−$1,963	-61%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$177	+$823	+464%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany?	Jun 25	$109	+$1,891	+1735%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Germany?	Jun 25	$61	−$59	-97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Germany?	Jun 25	$62	−$60	-97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Germany?	Jun 25	$32	−$31	-97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Germany?	Jun 25	$62	−$60	-97%
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	Jun 25	$143	−$140	-98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on	Jun 25	$305	+$329	+108%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$225	+$775	+344%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	Jun 24	$203	+$241	+119%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5	Jun 24	$203	−$200	-99%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	Jun 24	$204	−$200	-98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$4,140	−$1,551	-38%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana?	Jun 23	$92	−$90	-97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia?	Jun 23	$133	−$130	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. Fr	BUY	4¢	$200	56m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	BUY Belgium	65¢	$1,314	1h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5)	BUY Senegal	60¢	$1,214	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	65¢	$1,314	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	59¢	$1,195	1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will	BUY	17¢	$200	1h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Egyp	BUY	23¢	$300	1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will France win on	BUY	14¢	$300	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND	BUY	11¢	$100	8h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-	BUY	4¢	$50	8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	52¢	$660	15h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	23¢	$657	15h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	49¢	$1,454	16h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	35¢	$686	17h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	58¢	$1,160	17h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	14¢	$546	18h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	50¢	$1,015	19h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	51¢	$1,020	19h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Germany?	BUY Yes	2¢	$49	27h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Germany?	BUY Yes	3¢	$59	27h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Germany?	BUY Yes	1¢	$12	27h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Germany?	BUY Yes	1¢	$32	27h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Germany?	BUY Yes	6¢	$62	27h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Germany?	BUY Yes	2¢	$3	27h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany?	BUY Yes	5¢	$109	27h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? AND Will Paraguay vs. Au	BUY	10¢	$103	28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25	BUY	28¢	$511	28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25	BUY	12¢	$103	28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25	BUY	7¢	$103	28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25	BUY	17¢	$102	28h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,019.80 · official $6,141.17 · 66 history records