Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:05:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4761…88c6 crypto 201 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (330 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$43 (-3%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%87W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day329.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$358
sports 7% +$167
other 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (330 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 198 -19.8% -27.5% 44% 41% -21.4%
≤30d 198 -19.8% -27.5% 44% 41% -21.4%
≤90d 198 -19.8% -27.5% 44% 41% -21.4%
all 198 -19.8% -27.5% 44% 41% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover329.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.5% 41% -21.4%
10% ← realistic here -34.4% 35% -28.9%
15% -40.7% 29% -35.8%
20% -46.5% 22% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses87 / 111
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)198 / 201
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day329.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 24 $27 −$26 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 24 $41 +$24 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 24 $30 +$9 +29%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Keegan Smith vs Moez Echargui Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $19 +$17 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $63 +$99 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $62 +$48 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $1 +$3 +265%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $12 +$2 +18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $11 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$5 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$4 +70%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$1 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $12 −$10 -80%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 24 $6 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 24 $7 +$5 +74%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$4 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 24 $13 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$4 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$2 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 24 $13 −$12 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $27 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $41 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $20 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $21 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $36 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $21 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Keegan Smith vs Moez Echargui BUY Keegan Smith 0¢ $10 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Keegan Smith vs Moez Echargui BUY Keegan Smith 0¢ $1 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $161 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.40 · official $70.40 (match) · 592 history records