Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:49:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4761…f18a sports 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$85 (-23%) realized −$47 · open −$38
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$80
7 days−$74
14 days−$74
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$74
sports 42% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-38.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -32.5% -38.9% 33% 33% -51.5%
≤30d 12 -32.5% -38.9% 33% 33% -51.5%
≤90d 12 -32.5% -38.9% 33% 33% -51.5%
all 12 -32.5% -38.9% 33% 33% -51.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.9% 33% -51.5%
10% -44.8% 33% -56.2%
15% -50.1% 33% -60.4%
20% -55.0% 33% -64.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -69% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$47
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)12 / 21
History coverage8d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $89 $80 −$10 (-11%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Salah vs. Mane Salah 49¢ 48¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 49¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ $37 $9 −$29 (-76%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium to win the second half? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +70%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists Jun 14 $2 $0 -12%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 14 $3 +$2 +67%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $3 +$2 +64%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $39 −$27 -68%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $30 −$23 -75%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $31 +$19 +63%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1 1h
Belgium to win the second half? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1 18h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 37¢ $3 18h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 62¢ $4 18h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $4 26h
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists SELL Yes 40¢ $2 26h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 7.5 Corners SELL Over 100¢ $5 26h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $5 26h
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 44¢ $2 32h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $3 32h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 59¢ $3 32h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY 28¢ $18 32h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL 19¢ $12 32h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY 30¢ $20 32h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $12 42h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 46h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 12¢ $8 46h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $30 2d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 32¢ $33 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 54¢ $50 3d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $10 4d
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $15 6d
World Cup Goals H2H: Salah vs. Mane BUY Salah 49¢ $15 6d
World Cup Goals H2H: Salah vs. Mane BUY Salah 49¢ $6 6d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 8d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $66 8d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.58 · official $127.58 (match) · 32 history records