Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:00:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4764…8141 weather 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate56%30W / 24L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 47% +$3
tech 44% −$2
other 9% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 29 -0.0% -9.6% 45% 0% -9.5%
all 54 +0.0% -9.5% 56% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses30 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage120d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 27 $140 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $97 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 08 $161 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $79 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 02 $94 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 30 $155 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 21 $199 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 16 $20 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 13 $200 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $112 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 05 $68 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr Apr 30 $54 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on April 22? Apr 26 $66 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 24 $54 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $70 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 20? Apr 21 $110 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 19 $100 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 11? Apr 16 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 8? Apr 10 $71 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 07 $70 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 5? Apr 06 $120 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 4? Apr 05 $55 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 03 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or higher on April 1? Apr 01 $10 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31? Apr 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 01 $102 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on March 29? Mar 30 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on March 28? Mar 29 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on March 25 Mar 26 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on March 24? Mar 25 $61 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 23? Mar 24 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C or higher on March 2 Mar 23 $81 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 21 $191 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C or higher on March 16? Mar 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 56-57°F on March 16? Mar 17 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 52°F or higher on Mar Mar 16 $119 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 16 $120 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 13? Mar 14 $102 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 14 $2 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 13 $101 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 10? Mar 10 $120 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 09 $120 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Mar 08 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 6? Mar 08 $118 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 6? Mar 07 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 4? Mar 04 $119 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 3? Mar 03 $119 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C or higher on March 2? Mar 03 $118 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $80 1h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $79 3d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 99¢ $61 9d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $61 14d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $97 14d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $97 17d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $89 19d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $89 20d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $79 21d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $79 23d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $84 25d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $84 26d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $81 28d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $81 28d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $64 30d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $64 33d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $71 34d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $71 35d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $11 37d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $11 40d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $5 41d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $5 41d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $5 41d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $5 41d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $10 42d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $10 42d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $20 42d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $20 42d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $5 42d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $5 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 141 history records