Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:06:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4765…ca11 other 171 markets active 0h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,568 (-44%) realized −$1,459 · open −$109
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%16W / 139L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$236now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$200
7 days−$172
14 days−$199
30 days−$264
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$274
world 39% −$1,063
crypto 10% −$34
finance 5% −$162
sports 3% −$61
economics 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-55.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -37.5% -43.5% 11% 11% -35.4%
≤30d 124 -39.2% -45.0% 13% 13% -28.4%
≤90d 124 -39.2% -45.0% 13% 13% -28.4%
all 155 -50.8% -55.5% 10% 10% -56.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.5% 10% -56.9%
10% -59.7% 9% -61.0%
15% -63.6% 9% -64.8%
20% -67.2% 9% -68.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -67% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$18 · ×3.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$236
Realized−$1,459
Unrealized−$109
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses16 / 139
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions12
Markets (closed)155 / 171
History coverage165d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 22¢ $30 $72 +$42 (+141%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $67 +$17 (+34%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $75 $39 −$36 (-48%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? Yes 21¢ 38¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+83%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $25 $4 −$21 (-82%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-83%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$4 (-70%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $75 $1 −$74 (-98%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $25 $1 −$24 (-95%)
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 2 Austria? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 1 Austria? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 135 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Argentina? Jun 28 $10 −$3 -32%
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals Jun 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 0 England? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $10 +$23 +223%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 27 $21 +$22 +105%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $41 −$19 -46%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Belgium? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Belgium? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Belgium? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $43 −$42 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Belgium? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 0 Belgium? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 1 Belgium? Jun 27 $3 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 2 Belgium? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Belgium? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
New Zealand to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Spain? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Spain? Jun 27 $24 −$23 -97%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 26 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Spain? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 3 IR Iran? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 3 IR Iran? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 3 IR Iran? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Paraguay 3 - 3 Australia? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $24 +$141 +596%
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $10 +$21 +206%
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 2 Sweden? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 3 Sweden? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 3 Sweden? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 3 Mexico? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Argentina? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 16m
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Argentina? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27 BUY 12¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 0 England? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? SELL Yes 57¢ $33 22h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 2 IR Iran? SELL Yes 13¢ $42 23h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 4¢ $22 23h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY 0¢ $5 24h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? AND Will IR Iran win on 20 BUY 3¢ $4 24h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Belgium? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 24h
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Belgium? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 24h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 24h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Belgium? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 25h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Belgium? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 26h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 0 Belgium? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 26h
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 1 Belgium? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 26h
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 2 Belgium? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 26h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Belgium? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 26h
New Zealand to score first vs. Belgium? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $236.16 · official $238.61 · 268 history records