trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | +0.1% | -9.5% | 25% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 15 | +0.5% | -9.1% | 27% | 0% | -9.2% |
| ≤90d | 15 | +0.5% | -9.1% | 27% | 0% | -9.2% |
| all | 23 | +0.9% | -8.7% | 43% | 4% | -9.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.7% | 4% | -9.1% |
| 10% | -17.4% | 4% | -17.8% |
| 15% | -25.4% | 0% | -25.7% |
| 20% | -32.7% | 0% | -33.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | Jun 20 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | Jun 20 | $28 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 18 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Jun 17 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 16 | $27 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Jun 15 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 15 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 14 | $62 | $0 | -0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 13 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $27 | +$2 | +7% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 11 | $28 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $56 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 08 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 9? | Jun 08 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? | Jun 26 | $9 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 30 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the PPC win 0 seats in the next Canadian Election? | Apr 20 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Titans draft a Quarterback? | Apr 19 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 25 | $11 | $0 | -1% |
| Massachusetts vs. St. Bonaventure | Mar 05 | $10 | −$2 | -18% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 31-32°F on February 20? | Mar 04 | $9 | +$3 | +27% |