Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:16:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4768…f198 sports 1321 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$119 (-4%) realized −$114 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%597W / 705L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$36
14 days−$36
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$71
other 10% −$31
crypto 4% −$6
world 2% −$6
finance 2% −$4
politics 0% −$7
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +4.2% -5.7% 24% 24% -28.2%
≤30d 614 -3.1% -12.4% 47% 47% -12.3%
≤90d 1279 -4.8% -13.9% 45% 45% -13.1%
all 1302 -4.8% -13.8% 46% 44% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 44% -13.0%
10% -22.1% 44% -21.4%
15% -29.6% 42% -29.0%
20% -36.5% 38% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$114
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses597 / 705
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions12
Markets (closed)1302 / 1321
History coverage126d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 1302 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Yes 11¢ 9¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? Yes 23¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-45%)
Roland Garros WTA: Panna Udvardy vs Viktorija Golubic Panna Udvardy 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 488 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -47%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 16 $8 −$2 -28%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 -19%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 16 $6 −$1 -14%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Jun 16 $6 −$1 -19%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -34%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 16 $7 $0 -7%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 -12%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Jun 16 $8 −$2 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $9 −$2 -21%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 16 $9 −$2 -17%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $3 +$3 +91%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Jun 15 $7 −$1 -14%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 15 $11 −$4 -32%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 15 $1 $0 -21%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $500 in June? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -22%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -33%
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -51%
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -72%
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. SSG Landers Jun 15 $2 +$1 +22%
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Daniel Altmaier: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 −$2 -80%
Kamilla Rakhimova vs. Jaqueline Cristian: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 +180%
Benjamin Bonzi vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 +48%
T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Essex Jun 15 $2 −$2 -75%
Daniel Michalski vs. Benjamin Hassan: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $0 +$1 +158%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Lotte Giants Jun 15 $1 $0 +73%
Lilian Marmousez vs. Federico Bondioli: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 -7%
Miomir Kecmanovic vs. Karen Khachanov: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 -3%
Set Handicap: Bergs (-1.5) vs Gea (+1.5) Jun 15 $2 $0 -3%
Hamburg European Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Joao Fonseca Jun 15 $2 $0 -3%
Map Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs BBL Esports (+1.5) Jun 15 $0 $0 +173%
Tomasz Berkieta vs. Sandro Kopp: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 +52%
Egypt vs. Russia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 +86%
Will LDU de Quito win on 2026-05-20? Jun 15 $0 $0 +101%
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Gloucestershire Jun 15 $0 $0 +76%
Zizou Bergs vs. Arthur Gea: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 -3%
Keys vs. Bucsa: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 -3%
Sekulic vs. Krueger: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 15 $3 $0 -2%
Julia Grabher vs. Amanda Anisimova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 −$1 -27%
Sebastian Baez vs. Roman Andres Burruchaga: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +36%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Blockx (+1.5) Jun 15 $3 $0 -3%
Hailey Baptiste vs. Xiyu Wang: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 −$1 -18%
Choinski vs. Herbert: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 15 $3 $0 -2%
Philip Sekulic vs. Mitchell Krueger: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 $0 -3%
Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Arthur Fils Jun 15 $6 −$2 -36%
Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $2 +$4 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 8h
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 8h
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 13h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 13h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 13h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 13h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 13h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 13h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 13h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 13h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 13h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 13h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 13h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 13h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 13h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 13h
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 13h
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 13h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 13h
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 13h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 13h
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 17h
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 18h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 18h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.68 · official $9.70 (match) · 2117 history records