Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:48:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

47 0x476b…6f39 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$28 (-12%) realized −$28 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip

Net edge-17%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$59per market

Trades / day12.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-10.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-0.8%	-10.2%	50%	25%	-18.0%
≤30d	4	-0.8%	-10.2%	50%	25%	-18.0%
≤90d	4	-0.8%	-10.2%	50%	25%	-18.0%
all	4	-0.8%	-10.2%	50%	25%	-18.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-10.2%	25%	-18.0%
10%	-18.8%	25%	-25.9%
15%	-26.6%	0%	-33.0%
20%	-33.8%	0%	-39.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 85% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -9% too few recent

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -1% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$6 vs −$17 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.34 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$28

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)4 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$59

Trades / day12.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 4 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia	Jun 23	$42	+$9	+23%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$68	−$9	-13%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$17	+$2	+10%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$108	−$24	-22%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia	SELL Grind Back	87¢	$51	1h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia	BUY Grind Back	70¢	$42	1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	88¢	$42	3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	39¢	$19	3h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	51¢	$19	3h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	45¢	$17	3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	24¢	$17	3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	66¢	$49	5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	93¢	$49	5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	66¢	$35	6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	SELL No	34¢	$35	6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	69¢	$73	7h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records