Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:25:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
47 0x476d…c84f crypto 1631 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$82 (+1%) realized +$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate84%1369W / 262L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day31.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$21
14 days+$7
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 357 -1.3% -10.7% 92% 21% -10.6%
≤30d 1012 +2.7% -7.1% 83% 32% -9.1%
≤90d 1631 +1.4% -8.2% 84% 38% -9.1%
all 1631 +1.4% -8.2% 84% 38% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 38% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 10% -17.8%
15% -25.0% 3% -25.7%
20% -32.4% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses1369 / 262
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1631 / 1631
History coverage54d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day31.6
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1631 Trades
no open positions (173 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3267 history records