Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:49:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x476e…00a9 crypto 569 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,554 (-7%) realized −$1,492 · open −$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate61%347W / 219L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$165
7 days+$165
14 days+$165
30 days+$165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$1,091
sports 35% −$847
world 5% +$397
other 0% −$51
politics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.1% -9.6% 60% 60% +1.0%
≤30d 30 -0.1% -9.6% 60% 60% +1.0%
≤90d 98 -11.4% -19.8% 58% 46% -3.1%
all 566 -9.8% -18.4% 61% 36% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 36% -15.7%
10% -26.2% 27% -23.7%
15% -33.3% 21% -31.1%
20% -39.9% 15% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$31 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized−$1,492
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses347 / 219
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions3
Markets (closed)566 / 569
History coverage123d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 566 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Piracicaba: Gustavo Almeida vs Paulo Dos Santos Gustavo Almeida 65¢ 62¢ $65 $62 −$2 (-4%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 36¢ $66 $36 −$30 (-45%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 57¢ 6¢ $34 $4 −$31 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 146 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $59 +$40 +67%
Rainbow Six Siege: Heretics vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League Sta Jun 23 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$30 -96%
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C Jun 23 $177 +$123 +70%
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage Jun 23 $83 +$16 +19%
Rainbow Six Siege: Twisted Minds vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea Jun 23 $63 +$27 +42%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $21 −$2 -7%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ella McDonald vs Elvina Kalieva Jun 23 $43 +$19 +43%
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $40 +$10 +24%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $63 +$36 +58%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $22 +$8 +35%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo Jun 23 $49 +$24 +48%
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA Leagu Jun 23 $37 +$18 +48%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $30 +$39 +132%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $46 +$23 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$6 +156%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $75 +$26 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 23 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 23 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $7 +$12 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $53 −$53 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos Jun 23 $82 +$18 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $18 −$17 -94%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $66 −$66 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 23 $84 −$83 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $123 +$87 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 20 $7 +$4 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 20 $5 +$1 +23%
Valorant: FOKUS vs Enterprise Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group B May 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Dota 2: Nix Team vs Recrent Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Grou May 20 $7 +$13 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Team Orange Gaming vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO5) - Prime League May 20 $13 −$13 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Bushido Wildcats - Game 1 Winner May 20 $12 −$12 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 20 $20 +$10 +48%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 20 $5 +$3 +54%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 20 $7 +$3 +48%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 20 $10 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eur May 20 $10 +$5 +53%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 20 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 20 $3 +$2 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A SELL Acend 99¢ $99 30m
Rainbow Six Siege: Heretics vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League Sta SELL Shifters 99¢ $30 32m
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 59¢ $59 37m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $67 54m
Rainbow Six Siege: Heretics vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League Sta BUY Shifters 82¢ $25 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $31 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 57¢ $35 1h
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C SELL MIR 89¢ $228 1h
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C SELL MIR 89¢ $8 1h
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C SELL MIR 65¢ $39 1h
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C SELL MIR 65¢ $25 1h
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY MIR 37¢ $38 1h
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY MIR 59¢ $90 1h
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY MIR 19¢ $0 2h
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY MIR 19¢ $2 2h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage SELL Misa Esports 99¢ $99 2h
Piracicaba: Gustavo Almeida vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Gustavo Almeida 65¢ $66 2h
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY MIR 45¢ $47 2h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 83¢ $15 2h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 83¢ $21 2h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 83¢ $47 2h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 83¢ $0 2h
Rainbow Six Siege: Twisted Minds vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea SELL G2 Esports 99¢ $19 2h
Rainbow Six Siege: Twisted Minds vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea SELL G2 Esports 99¢ $70 2h
Rainbow Six Siege: Twisted Minds vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea BUY G2 Esports 69¢ $13 2h
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy - Map 1 Winner SELL ONSIDE GAMING 57¢ $20 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ella McDonald vs Elvina Kalieva SELL Elvina Kalieva 99¢ $43 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ella McDonald vs Elvina Kalieva SELL Elvina Kalieva 99¢ $1 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ella McDonald vs Elvina Kalieva SELL Elvina Kalieva 99¢ $1 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ella McDonald vs Elvina Kalieva SELL Elvina Kalieva 99¢ $6 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.60 · official $106.50 · 2178 history records