Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:19:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
47 0x4771…5bfb sports 168 markets active 1h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$181 (+5%) realized +$185 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate49%75W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days−$10
14 days+$154
30 days+$187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$117
world 28% +$270
sports 13% −$93
crypto 5% −$52
politics 3% −$108
culture 0% +$2
weather 0% −$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -18.5% -26.3% 56% 56% -15.5%
≤30d 26 +19.3% +7.9% 65% 65% +20.3%
≤90d 68 -6.7% -15.6% 51% 50% -11.0%
all 152 -1.0% -10.4% 49% 44% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 44% -6.1%
10% -19.0% 37% -15.1%
15% -26.8% 32% -23.3%
20% -34.0% 26% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$10 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$189
Realized+$185
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses75 / 77
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions13
Markets (closed)152 / 168
History coverage252d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Under 89¢ 90¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 3.5 Corners Over 67¢ 80¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Under 86¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Norway O/U 3.5 Corners Over 72¢ 71¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 3.5 Corners Under 69¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Take First Corner Germany 82¢ 77¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 4.5 Corners Under 74¢ 51¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 4.5 Corners Under 60¢ 68¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 44¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? No $2 $1 −$1 (-45%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Japan 27¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$7 +37%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +46%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 21 $70 +$104 +148%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$8 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $10 +$30 +297%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$8 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 18 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $10 +$2 +21%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $60 −$2 -4%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $50 −$1 -3%
Qatar vs. El Salvador: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $10 +$3 +31%
Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 30 $20 +$10 +48%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong May 29 $40 −$40 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $50 −$50 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Marie Bouzkova May 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Chisinau: Lorenzo Giustino vs Luca Nardi May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Alexander Blockx May 26 $10 +$2 +22%
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet May 26 $10 +$16 +158%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Roman Safiullin May 25 $20 +$2 +11%
Centurion: Patrick Zahraj vs Giles Hussey May 25 $1 +$1 +57%
Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev May 25 $10 +$5 +48%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaume Munar vs Hubert Hurkacz May 25 $10 +$8 +76%
Roland Garros ATP: Emilio Nava vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli May 25 $20 +$21 +101%
Roland Garros ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Adrian Mannarino May 25 $10 +$2 +16%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic May 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jenson Brooksby May 25 $10 +$1 +14%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier May 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Marin Cilic vs Moise Kouame May 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Centurion: Harold Mayot vs Millen Hurrion May 25 $1 $0 +26%
Chisinau: Hugo Grenier vs Luca Nardi May 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Jesper de Jong May 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United Kingdom come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Tomas Machac May 07 $2 +$3 +129%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hubert Hurkacz vs Yannick Hanfmann May 05 $3 −$3 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Marcos Giron vs Marin Cilic May 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY No $2 44m
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 78¢ $50 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 89¢ $20 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Norway O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 72¢ $10 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 86¢ $10 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 60¢ $5 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 27¢ $1 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 74¢ $10 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 67¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Take First Corner BUY Germany 82¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 69¢ $10 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $5 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 14¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? AND Will England win on 2026-07-01? BUY 30¢ $10 22h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-2 BUY $5 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 8d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $174 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $20 10d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 10d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.49 · official $199.10 · 300 history records