Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:17:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

47
0x4773…8e6b
crypto · 335 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$113 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$113 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$113
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses186 / 149
Open positions0
Markets (closed)335 / 335
History coverage90d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 335 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$8
14 days−$3
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 06 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 06 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 05 $2 +$5 +300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 04 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 01 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 01 $1 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 01 $1 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 01 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 30 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 30 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 30 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 30 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 30 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 30 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 30 $3 +$1 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$97
world 1% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +15.8% +4.8% 84% 84% +3.8%
≤30d 173 -6.1% -15.0% 64% 64% -18.1%
≤90d 335 -8.7% -17.4% 56% 55% -19.1%
all 335 -8.7% -17.4% 56% 55% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 55% -19.1%
10% -25.3% 50% -26.9%
15% -32.5% 37% -33.9%
20% -39.1% 26% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 703 history records