Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:33:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

47 0x4774…0f6a sports 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$107 (+35%) realized +$107 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +77% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +60% what you keep after slip

Net edge+60%after slip

Net WR56%break-even

Win rate56%9W / 7L

Drawdown37%max

Avg bet$18per market

Trades / day2.7pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$5

7 days+$93

14 days+$145

30 days+$145

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +56%

net ROI/market (all)+60.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	+76.1%	+59.4%	55%	55%	+28.4%
≤30d	16	+77.2%	+60.3%	56%	56%	+36.2%
≤90d	16	+77.2%	+60.3%	56%	56%	+36.2%
all	16	+77.2%	+60.3%	56%	56%	+36.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+60.3%	56%	+36.2%
10%	+45.0%	50%	+23.1%
15%	+31.0%	50%	+11.2%
20%	+18.1%	44%	+0.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 26% · top 2 43% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +77% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +102% → late +52% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$26 vs −$13 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.63 per $1 lost it wins $2.63

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$15

Realized+$107

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)56%

Wins / losses9 / 7

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions1

Markets (closed)16 / 17

History coverage10d

Avg bet$18

Trades / day2.7

Drawdown37%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score	Yes	48¢	46¢	$15	$15	−$0 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5	Jun 21	$5	+$40	+784%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5	Jun 21	$25	−$25	-98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 1.5	Jun 21	$10	−$10	-100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 19	$17	−$17	-98%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5	Jun 19	$44	+$18	+41%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$21	+$19	+93%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-100%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$20	+$20	+100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	Jun 16	$20	+$60	+300%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$41	+$8	+19%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$6	+$24	+388%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$29	+$32	+109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5	Jun 13	$10	−$10	-100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 12	$13	+$13	+100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score	Jun 11	$7	−$7	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	48¢	$15	1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$45	1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5	BUY Over	11¢	$5	4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	50¢	$25	5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 1.5	BUY Over	11¢	$0	6h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 1.5	BUY Over	11¢	$10	6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5	BUY Over	11¢	$10	31h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	34¢	$17	2d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5	SELL Over	76¢	$30	2d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5	SELL Over	79¢	$32	2d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5	BUY Over	55¢	$44	2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	51¢	$21	4d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	BUY Yes	21¢	$0	4d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	BUY Yes	21¢	$1	4d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	BUY Yes	21¢	$9	4d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$40	4d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5	BUY Over	50¢	$20	4d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	25¢	$20	5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	60¢	$48	6d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	49¢	$41	6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5	BUY Over	20¢	$10	8d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	47¢	$29	8d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	20¢	$6	8d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	50¢	$13	10d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	7¢	$5	10d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	7¢	$2	10d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	7¢	$0	10d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.53 · official $14.53 (match) · 32 history records