Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:02:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4775…1abb other 183 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$52 (-0%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%23W / 159L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$15
14 days−$23
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$30
politics 27% −$19
sports 18% −$17
crypto 7% −$8
finance 4% +$1
world 4% −$1
economics 4% −$4
culture 3% −$5
tech 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.6% -10.0% 8% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 80 -0.7% -10.2% 10% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 168 -0.5% -10.0% 12% 0% -9.9%
all 182 -0.5% -10.0% 13% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses23 / 159
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)182 / 183
History coverage101d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 90¢ 91¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $393 −$2 -0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $100 −$2 -2%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $65 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $372 −$1 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $59 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $363 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $548 −$1 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $110 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 17 $106 −$2 -2%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $52 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $108 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $478 −$1 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $105 −$1 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $55 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 15 $53 +$1 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $70 $0 -0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $54 −$2 -4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $41 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 13 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $152 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $45 +$2 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $66 −$2 -2%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $172 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $50 +$1 +2%
Will David Raya record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 10 $11 −$1 -12%
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 10 $68 −$4 -5%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $53 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $65 $0 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $66 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 07 $51 $0 +1%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $30 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 06 $40 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 06 $42 $0 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $46 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $391 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $207 −$1 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $97 −$1 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $157 −$1 -1%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $97 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $51 $0 -1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $116 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 90¢ $51 1h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $49 1h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $49 8h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $48 9h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $48 14h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $64 14h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $65 20h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $55 21h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $55 28h
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $59 29h
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $59 36h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $46 36h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $46 44h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $53 45h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $53 2d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $51 2d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $51 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 94¢ $56 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $57 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $54 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $55 3d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $58 3d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $58 3d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $49 3d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $49 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $45 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $45 4d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $54 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.86 · official $50.86 (match) · 713 history records