Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:32:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4776…e988 crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$42 (-15%) realized −$31 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day47.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$19
other 19% −$12
politics 11% +$1
sports 6% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-42.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -36.0% -42.1% 33% 33% -30.4%
≤30d 6 -36.0% -42.1% 33% 33% -30.4%
≤90d 6 -36.0% -42.1% 33% 33% -30.4%
all 6 -36.0% -42.1% 33% 33% -30.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.1% 33% -30.4%
10% ← realistic here -47.6% 17% -37.1%
15% -52.7% 17% -43.2%
20% -57.3% 17% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized−$31
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)6 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day47.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Up 32¢ 50¢ $25 $39 +$14 (+58%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $39 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 24¢ 25¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+5%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 49¢ 16¢ $15 $5 −$10 (-68%)
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) New Zealand 18¢ 4¢ $18 $4 −$14 (-76%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Up 90¢ 50¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 22 $16 −$11 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $89 −$10 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $6 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 45m
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 51m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $7 57m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 58m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 59m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $5 59m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 59m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $6 59m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.11 · official $120.13 (match) · 51 history records