Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:20:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4777…b548 crypto 357 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (283 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$244 (+19%) realized +$247 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%200W / 155L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day283.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$207
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (283 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 355 +8.4% -1.9% 56% 44% -8.0%
≤30d 355 +8.4% -1.9% 56% 44% -8.0%
≤90d 355 +8.4% -1.9% 56% 44% -8.0%
all 355 +8.4% -1.9% 56% 44% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover283.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.9% 44% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -11.3% 28% -16.8%
15% -19.8% 21% -24.9%
20% -27.7% 11% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 58% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$247
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses200 / 155
Open positions2
Markets (closed)355 / 357
History coverage2d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day283.3
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 355 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Down 66¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$5 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$6 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$4 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.39 · official $3.21 · 820 history records