Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:21:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

47 0x4777…0e62 sports 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$163 (+21%) realized +$159 · open +$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip

Net edge+19%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$265per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$9est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$291now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 34d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+18.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	2	+31.4%	+18.9%	100%	100%	+18.9%
all	2	+31.4%	+18.9%	100%	100%	+18.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+18.9%	100%	+18.9%
10%	+7.5%	50%	+7.5%
15%	-2.9%	50%	-2.9%
20%	-12.4%	0%	-12.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 75% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +31% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +31% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$79 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage

Net worth$291

Realized+$159

Unrealized+$4

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Est. fees paid−$9

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage34d

Avg bet$265

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Spirit	56¢	56¢	$287	$291	+$4 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs	May 17	$253	+$119	+47%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play	May 16	$251	+$39	+16%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Spirit	55¢	$100	1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Spirit	56¢	$190	1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs	SELL Spirit	91¢	$372	33d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs	BUY Spirit	61¢	$253	33d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play	SELL Natus Vincere	100¢	$290	34d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play	BUY Natus Vincere	86¢	$251	34d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $290.87 · official $290.92 (match) · 6 history records