Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:24:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x477a…2d8e crypto 233 markets active 2h ago coverage 274d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 274d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$21,345 (-9%) realized −$16,890 · open −$4,455
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate41%103W / 146L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,058per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$227est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$4,137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 274d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 28% −$27,241
crypto 21% +$10,125
world 15% +$2,071
other 12% −$3,457
politics 10% −$1,126
sports 8% +$15,718
economics 3% −$2,790
finance 3% +$466
culture 1% −$1,831
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -84.1% -85.6% 10% 10% -70.2%
≤30d 74 -72.0% -74.6% 15% 15% -55.7%
≤90d 98 -43.8% -49.2% 18% 17% -51.9%
all 249 +27.5% +15.3% 41% 33% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +15.3% 33% -21.7%
10% ← realistic here +4.3% 27% -29.1%
15% -5.8% 22% -36.0%
20% -15.0% 20% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$707) neutral
Persistence
early +95% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$630 vs −$707 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$4,137
Realized−$16,890
Unrealized−$4,455
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses103 / 146
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$227
Open positions33
Markets (closed)249 / 233
History coverage274d ⚠
Avg bet$1,058
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026? No 74¢ 80¢ $740 $805 +$65 (+9%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No 31¢ 44¢ $302 $424 +$122 (+41%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 Over 79¢ 80¢ $395 $398 +$2 (+1%)
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $373 $377 +$3 (+1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 24¢ 26¢ $348 $370 +$22 (+6%)
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? No 55¢ 82¢ $135 $201 +$67 (+50%)
Epstein client list released by June 30? Yes 26¢ 1¢ $4,285 $201 −$4,084 (-95%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 24¢ 17¢ $240 $167 −$72 (-30%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 37¢ 14¢ $351 $129 −$222 (-63%)
Will Consensys IPO by December 31 2026? No 57¢ 80¢ $84 $117 +$33 (+39%)
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? No 72¢ 86¢ $83 $99 +$16 (+19%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $96 $95 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $84 $92 +$8 (+9%)
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027? Yes 12¢ 7¢ $154 $90 −$64 (-42%)
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? No 40¢ 34¢ $80 $69 −$11 (-14%)
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026? No 65¢ 23¢ $197 $69 −$128 (-65%)
Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026? No 77¢ 86¢ $61 $68 +$7 (+12%)
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? Yes 40¢ 39¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-2%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? No 22¢ 52¢ $20 $47 +$27 (+134%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 62¢ 44¢ $62 $44 −$18 (-28%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-3%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $34 $31 −$3 (-9%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-2%)
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? Yes 25¢ 3¢ $249 $28 −$222 (-89%)
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? Yes 28¢ 22¢ $35 $27 −$8 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 132 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 19 $96 −$84 -87%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 15? Jun 19 $565 −$554 -98%
Boxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Terence Crawford Jun 19 $1,550 −$1,550 -100%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 19 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2025 US Open? Jun 19 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April? Jun 19 $70 −$70 -100%
Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the World Rapid Championship? Jun 19 $328 −$346 -105%
Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-07? Jun 19 $970 −$986 -102%
Fact check: Was Tyler Robinson a lone actor? Jun 19 $213 −$213 -100%
Israel military action against Iran by Friday? Jun 19 $1,844 −$1,844 -100%
UFC 319: Murphy vs. Pico Jun 19 $250 −$250 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 26? Jun 19 $1,434 −$1,434 -100%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? Jun 19 $125 −$125 -100%
Ukraine election called in 2025? Jun 19 $443 −$443 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by July 10? Jun 19 $72 −$45 -62%
Will Trump raise or lower tariffs on China first? Jun 19 $1,669 −$1,669 -100%
Will Powell say "Trump" during September press conference? Jun 19 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 US Open? Jun 19 $65 −$65 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35-40 million views on day 1? Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Israel military action against Iran before July? Jun 19 $2,806 −$2,806 -100%
Starmer out before July? Jun 19 $147 −$147 -100%
US Open: Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Diddy found guilty of sex trafficking? Jun 19 $310 −$310 -100%
ATP Cincinnati - Shelton vs. Zverev Jun 19 $169 −$169 -100%
Will Dave Portnoy launch a coin before March? Jun 19 $106 −$106 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 −$96 -18793%
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by October 31? Jun 19 $673 −$673 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 27? Jun 19 $184 −$139 -76%
Taylor Swift pregnant in 2025? Jun 19 $110 −$110 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Jun 19 $377 −$354 -94%
Discord IPO in 2025? Jun 19 $229 −$229 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 31? Jun 19 $413 −$410 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 US Open? Jun 19 $191 −$191 -100%
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev Jun 19 $1,229 −$1,229 -100%
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 19 $279 −$149 -53%
Will there be a US Government shutdown? Jun 19 $2,130 −$2,130 -100%
New arrests in Charlie Kirk shooting by September 30? Jun 19 $226 −$226 -100%
Will Turkey win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? Jun 19 $3,318 −$3,310 -100%
Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by June 30? Jun 19 $1,483 −$1,478 -100%
Zelensky resigns in 2025? Jun 19 $88 −$84 -96%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? Jun 19 $675 −$7,198 -1066%
Global heat increase between 1.25°C and 1.27°C for 2024? Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in June? Jun 19 $42 −$42 -100%
US military action against Iran by Sunday? Jun 19 $467 −$467 -100%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during September press conferenc Jun 19 $2,358 −$2,358 -100%
ATP Cincinnati - Fonseca vs. Atmane Jun 19 $232 −$232 -100%
Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during September press conference? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Stripe IPO in 2025? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $283 +$52 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode? BUY Yes 73¢ $66 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $397 1h
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode? BUY Yes 71¢ $142 8h
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode? BUY Yes 74¢ $165 26h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $35 26h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $35 26h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $2 28h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $281 28h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $97 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $31 47h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 47h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $383 47h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $442 2d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 2d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3,398 2d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $499 2d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $499 2d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $117 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $116 2d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $2,899 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,886 2d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $893 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $87 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $495 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $32 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $2,280 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $126 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $254 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $517 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $862 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,136.98 · official $4,137.00 (match) · 3500 history records