Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:42:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
47 0x477e…23b3 other 161 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$76 (+2%) realized +$93 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate72%110W / 43L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$4
14 days+$22
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$89
sports 16% −$18
culture 13% −$55
world 8% +$47
tech 4% +$6
crypto 0% −$11
politics 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +16.9% +5.7% 67% 50% -8.9%
≤30d 90 +8.9% -1.5% 76% 54% -10.0%
≤90d 128 +5.1% -4.9% 74% 51% -6.7%
all 153 +4.2% -5.7% 72% 50% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 50% -7.2%
10% -14.7% 27% -16.1%
15% -23.0% 17% -24.2%
20% -30.5% 10% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$15 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized+$93
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses110 / 43
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)153 / 161
History coverage128d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tajon Buchanan: 2+ shots Yes 47¢ 49¢ $39 $41 +$2 (+4%)
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 69m and 73m? Yes 94¢ 90¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-5%)
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Yes 20¢ 14¢ $14 $10 −$4 (-28%)
Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-27%)
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 58m? Yes $2 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Tajon Buchanan: 1+ goals Yes 11¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-96%)
Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? Yes $4 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? Yes 25¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 28 $42 +$4 +10%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 28 $8 +$42 +525%
Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists Jun 27 $16 +$2 +13%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 27 $27 $0 +0%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Marcus Thuram: 1+ goals Jun 27 $16 +$4 +22%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 27 $41 +$19 +47%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $45 −$23 -51%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $22 −$9 -41%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists Jun 26 $73 −$72 -99%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 25 $36 −$15 -42%
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals Jun 25 $35 +$2 +6%
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals Jun 24 $17 +$8 +47%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $93 +$6 +6%
João Félix: 1+ goals Jun 23 $17 +$3 +21%
Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ goals Jun 23 $17 +$4 +22%
Rafael Leão: 1+ goals Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $18 +$2 +9%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m Jun 23 $55 +$8 +14%
Jean-Philippe Mateta: 1+ goals Jun 22 $13 +$3 +25%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 22 $13 +$2 +17%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 22 $14 +$32 +233%
Alexis Saelemaekers: 1+ goals Jun 22 $16 +$4 +28%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Jun 21 $22 −$11 -52%
Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals Jun 21 $16 +$2 +10%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Alex Baena: 1+ goals Jun 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? Jun 21 $38 −$37 -99%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m Jun 21 $4 −$1 -20%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $9 +$1 +6%
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals Jun 21 $12 +$1 +5%
Nico Williams: 1+ goals Jun 21 $16 +$1 +8%
Mikel Merino: 1+ goals Jun 21 $31 +$3 +10%
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals Jun 21 $16 +$2 +12%
Jordy Caicedo: 1+ goals Jun 20 $7 $0 -3%
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals Jun 20 $12 $0 +3%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Brian Brobbey: 3+ goals Jun 20 $4 +$1 +28%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $9 +$1 +6%
Cody Gakpo: 3+ goals Jun 20 $17 +$1 +8%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 20 $15 +$2 +15%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $4 +$1 +13%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $11 +$2 +16%
Justin Kluivert: 1+ goals Jun 20 $12 +$2 +18%
Memphis Depay: 1+ goals Jun 20 $12 +$2 +14%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J Jun 20 $48 +$2 +4%
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals Jun 20 $12 −$2 -14%
Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals Jun 20 $11 +$3 +30%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $4 +$6 +144%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tajon Buchanan: 1+ goals BUY Yes 11¢ $8 40m
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $4 42m
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $2 47m
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $8 47m
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $0 47m
Tajon Buchanan: 2+ shots BUY Yes 47¢ $40 2h
Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m? BUY Yes $3 5h
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 69m and 73m? BUY Yes 94¢ $28 5h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 58m? BUY Yes $1 16h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL No 66¢ $45 17h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL No 66¢ $1 17h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 56¢ $13 17h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 56¢ $4 17h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 63¢ $25 17h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 58m? BUY Yes $0 18h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 58m? BUY Yes $0 19h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 58m? BUY Yes $0 19h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 58m? BUY Yes $0 21h
Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists SELL No 88¢ $6 21h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 58m? BUY Yes $0 22h
Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists SELL No 88¢ $3 22h
Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists SELL No 88¢ $9 22h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $1 22h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $6 22h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $1 22h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 58m? BUY Yes $0 22h
Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists BUY No 78¢ $16 24h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL No 38¢ $27 24h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 58m? BUY Yes $0 27h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 58m? BUY Yes $0 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.69 · official $81.69 (match) · 502 history records