Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:51:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

47
0x4781…b12a
crypto · 1332 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,464 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,462 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$110
Realized−$1,462
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses822 / 509
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1331 / 1332
History coverage79d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1331 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,049
7 days−$1,253
14 days−$1,253
30 days−$1,253
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Up 85¢ 100¢ $51 $60 +$9 (+17%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET Up 65¢ 62¢ $52 $50 −$2 (-4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11AM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 11PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4AM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3PM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $38 −$36 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Jun 12 $59 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $85 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $33 −$5 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $34 +$41 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Jun 12 $59 −$7 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Jun 12 $62 +$42 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $35 −$33 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $33 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $40 −$38 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $35 −$33 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET Jun 12 $54 +$35 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $104 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $33 +$25 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $53 −$51 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $53 −$52 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $39 −$37 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $36 −$34 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $46 −$44 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $76 +$16 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $99 −$12 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $86 +$15 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $33 +$23 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $33 +$27 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $33 +$27 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $78 +$17 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $85 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $34 −$33 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $35 −$34 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $34 −$33 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $36 −$34 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $62 +$55 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $67 +$23 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$1,464
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $38 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $53 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $8 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $35 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $55 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $21 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 243 -21.0% -28.6% 43% 37% -19.6%
≤30d 243 -21.0% -28.6% 43% 37% -19.6%
≤90d 1331 -7.8% -16.6% 62% 60% -17.9%
all 1331 -7.8% -16.6% 62% 60% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 60% -17.9%
10% -24.6% 54% -25.8%
15% -31.9% 42% -32.9%
20% -38.6% 21% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.17 · official $110.17 (match) · 3500 history records