Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:17:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
47 0x4781…f6c5 sports 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$753 (-7%) realized −$761 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%42W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$160est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$238now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$230
7 days−$90
14 days−$787
30 days−$580
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$824
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +0.7% -8.9% 59% 53% -14.2%
≤30d 65 +5.7% -4.4% 48% 46% -15.8%
≤90d 94 -3.4% -12.6% 45% 44% -16.5%
all 94 -3.4% -12.6% 45% 44% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 44% -16.5%
10% -20.9% 44% -24.5%
15% -28.6% 44% -31.8%
20% -35.6% 44% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$99 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$238
Realized−$761
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses42 / 52
Est. fees paid−$160
Open positions2
Markets (closed)94 / 96
History coverage42d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs ex-RUBY 58¢ 61¢ $115 $121 +$6 (+5%)
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs CYBERSHOKE Esports 50¢ 51¢ $115 $117 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $116 −$115 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 16 $117 −$115 -98%
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs HyperSpirit (+1.5) Jun 16 $117 +$92 +79%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $117 −$115 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $116 −$115 -99%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $117 +$96 +83%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs Vivo Keyd Stars (+1.5) Jun 13 $117 +$93 +79%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 13 $116 +$66 +57%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Misa Esports (+1.5) Jun 13 $119 +$84 +70%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 13 $117 −$115 -98%
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Anubis Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $116 +$80 +69%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $117 +$109 +93%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $238 −$235 -99%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $1 +$1 +55%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 11 $81 +$100 +124%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs OLDBOYS- (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Jun 10 $203 +$174 +86%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $203 +$174 +86%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 10 $152 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 09 $89 −$87 -98%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 09 $122 −$120 -99%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $203 −$200 -98%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South A Jun 08 $202 +$112 +56%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Jun 08 $202 +$135 +67%
Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 08 $121 +$65 +54%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $122 −$120 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $324 −$320 -99%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) Jun 07 $152 +$134 +88%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs GenOne (+1.5) Jun 07 $202 +$137 +67%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $203 −$9 -4%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 07 $56 −$55 -98%
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs Vancouver Surge (BO5) - Call of Duty L Jun 06 $51 +$149 +291%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 05 $202 +$132 +65%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 05 $100 −$98 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 05 $51 −$50 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $102 −$100 -98%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) Jun 05 $152 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $253 +$150 +60%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen Jun 04 $203 −$200 -99%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag Jun 04 $102 −$100 -98%
Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $1 $0 -3%
Set Handicap: Berrettini (-2.5) vs Arnaldi (+2.5) Jun 04 $1 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Ursa (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stag Jun 04 $122 +$111 +91%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $51 −$50 -98%
Map Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (+1.5) Jun 04 $203 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $203 +$161 +79%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 02 $201 −$20 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 50¢ $117 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY ex-RUBY 58¢ $116 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 60¢ $116 8h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 49¢ $37 29h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $117 45h
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs HyperSpirit (+1.5) BUY HyperSpirit 55¢ $117 2d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 53¢ $117 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 64¢ $116 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 3d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 54¢ $117 4d
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Misa Esports (+1.5) BUY Galions 58¢ $119 5d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St BUY KOLESIE 63¢ $116 5d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY Gen.G 48¢ $117 5d
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs Vivo Keyd Stars (+1.5) BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 55¢ $117 5d
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Anubis Gaming (+1.5) BUY Anubis Gaming 58¢ $116 6d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY G2 Esports 55¢ $117 6d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Vitality 51¢ $117 6d
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali BUY LOS 64¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 BUY KOLESIE 44¢ $81 7d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $203 7d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY G2 Esports 55¢ $122 7d
Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs OLDBOYS- (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe BUY OLDBOYS- 53¢ $101 8d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C SELL Saigon Warriors 98¢ $377 8d
Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs OLDBOYS- (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe BUY OLDBOYS- 53¢ $101 8d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM BUY Fluxo W7M 47¢ $152 8d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $89 8d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY INOX Division 51¢ $122 8d
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In BUY Frites Esports Club 50¢ $203 9d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C BUY Saigon Warriors 52¢ $203 9d
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South A SELL paiN Gaming 100¢ $314 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $238.03 · official $238.03 (match) · 155 history records