Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:32:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

47
0x4783…9860
weather · 1436 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$39
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses914 / 486
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions36
Markets (closed)1400 / 1436
History coverage73d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day25.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 36 History 1400 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? No 87¢ 88¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? No 85¢ 77¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? No 72¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+39%)
Will Brian Shortsleeve win the 2026 Massachusetts Governor Republican primary election? No 65¢ 89¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Will Alexandra Van Cleef be the Republican nominee for FL-06? No 81¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? No 59¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? No 88¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? No 89¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Tucker Carlson announces a run for office by June 30? No 88¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? No 80¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? No 83¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? No 66¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? No 44¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? No 76¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? No 65¢ 67¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? No 87¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? No 89¢ 91¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? No 70¢ 71¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 13? No 83¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? No 85¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? No 87¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? No 89¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? No 90¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 87¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 13? No 70¢ 69¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 10 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 9? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $1 $0 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 09 $1 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 09 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 8? Jun 09 $1 $0 +39%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 09 $1 $0 +45%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 09 $1 +$1 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 08 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 08 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 7? Jun 08 $1 $0 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 08 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 7? Jun 08 $1 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 08 $1 $0 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 6? Jun 07 $1 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 07 $1 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 07 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 07 $1 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 07 $1 $0 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 6? Jun 07 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or below on June 6? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +56%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 6? Jun 07 $1 $0 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 06 $1 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 06 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 06 $1 $0 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 5? Jun 06 $1 +$1 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 5? Jun 06 $1 $0 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 91% +$15
other 3% +$2
politics 2% −$6
world 1% −$5
tech 1% −$4
sports 0% −$2
finance 0% $0
economics 0% +$1
culture 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 72¢ $1 9m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $1 15m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 70¢ $1 15m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 65¢ $1 22m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 83¢ $1 28m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 86¢ $1 51m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 84¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 87¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 70¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 69¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 85¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 66¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 44¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 89¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY No 82¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY No 80¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY No 89¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 59¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 86¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 83¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 75¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 76¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 87¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 79¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 46¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 72¢ $1 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +2.8% -7.0% 81% 77% -6.8%
≤30d 339 +3.9% -6.0% 82% 78% -5.8%
≤90d 1400 -0.6% -10.1% 65% 57% -9.5%
all 1400 -0.6% -10.1% 65% 57% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover25.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 57% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 32% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 16% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 9% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.12 · official $39.12 (match) · 3500 history records