Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:56:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

47
0x4786…ff95
sports · 1344 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$7,944 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7,939 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$42
Realized−$7,939
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses505 / 836
Whale WR (big bets)32%
Est. fees paid−$291
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1341 / 1344
History coverage142d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 3 History 1341 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$174
14 days−$295
30 days−$566
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 52¢ $20 $17 −$2 (-12%)
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs F5 Esports 34¢ 26¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-23%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 51¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Over 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $20 −$1 -3%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $90 −$7 -8%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $10 +$5 +48%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $10 −$4 -38%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $6 +$2 +37%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $17 −$13 -76%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +68%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 +$25 +241%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $18 +$8 +44%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $18 +$6 +34%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 12 $10 −$6 -57%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $10 −$2 -15%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $9 −$1 -7%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$4 -41%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $7 −$5 -72%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$7 +68%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$11 +105%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $9 −$9 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $10 +$2 +20%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $5 −$1 -22%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $1 +$6 +572%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 11 $48 +$27 +56%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $13 −$1 -5%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 +$1 +7%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$1 -7%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$4 +35%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 +$11 +105%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $25 +$25 +97%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $10 −$5 -53%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $37 +$33 +89%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $3 −$2 -52%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $10 +$3 +27%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $14 $0 +0%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $20 +$14 +67%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $20 +$18 +90%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $12 −$8 -63%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 09 $38 −$7 -19%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 09 $10 −$1 -8%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $40 +$27 +68%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 85% −$9,227
other 13% +$1,752
crypto 1% −$348
weather 1% −$40
politics 0% −$76
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Tampa Bay Rays 26¢ $5 29m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets SELL Atlanta Braves 4¢ $4 30m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins SELL Minnesota Twins 83¢ $15 30m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 25¢ $5 34m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 55¢ $10 35m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 6¢ $6 40m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants SELL San Francisco Giants 31¢ $6 41m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 48¢ $10 42m
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo BUY F5 Esports 34¢ $7 44m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 0¢ $1 51m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 77¢ $8 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $6 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Tampa Bay Rays 13¢ $5 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Cincinnati Reds 4¢ $3 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets SELL Atlanta Braves 6¢ $4 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $9 1h
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL Paraguay 67¢ $35 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 13¢ $5 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 6¢ $5 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Cincinnati Reds 4¢ $1 1h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Paraguay 19¢ $10 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 7¢ $5 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $20 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 54¢ $12 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $17 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets SELL Atlanta Braves 46¢ $7 3h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) SELL Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $24 3h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Tampa Bay Rays 59¢ $10 3h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL New York Yankees 19¢ $4 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -0.3% -9.8% 41% 39% -18.3%
≤30d 254 -6.5% -15.4% 40% 38% -20.7%
≤90d 872 -8.0% -16.8% 37% 35% -19.9%
all 1341 -6.2% -15.1% 38% 34% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 34% -18.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 31% -26.5%
15% -30.6% 25% -33.6%
20% -37.4% 21% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.72 · official $41.72 (match) · 3500 history records