Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:09:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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47 0x4787…db20 crypto 2027 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d only
✗ bot/MM pace (88 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$445 (-7%) realized −$444 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate32%648W / 1348L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day87.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$228
7 days−$123
14 days−$47
30 days−$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$96
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (88 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-47.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 258 -10.0% -18.6% 73% 67% -18.3%
≤30d 1813 -42.4% -47.8% 35% 31% -12.8%
≤90d 1996 -42.2% -47.7% 32% 28% -12.8%
all 1996 -42.2% -47.7% 32% 28% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover87.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -47.7% 28% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -52.7% 8% -21.1%
15% -57.3% 3% -28.7%
20% -61.5% 2% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -64% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$444
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses648 / 1348
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1996 / 2027
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day87.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1996 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage RUSTEC 54¢ 38¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-30%)
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Kathinka von Deichmann 21¢ 66¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+214%)
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Anastasiia Sobolieva 33¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 57¢ 57¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio Raul Brancaccio 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 495 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$9 -114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$5 -104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$2 -3242%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$21 -104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$9 -118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$7 -143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$4 -180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$9 -122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$6 -158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$9 -115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$5 -104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY RUSTEC 62¢ $1 20m
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY RUSTEC 62¢ $1 21m
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Anastasiia Sobolieva 33¢ $1 21m
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY RUSTEC 57¢ $1 22m
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY RUSTEC 58¢ $1 26m
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Kathinka von Deichmann 21¢ $1 39m
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY RUSTEC 39¢ $1 40m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $1 59m
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio BUY Raul Brancaccio 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.69 · official $9.69 (match) · 3500 history records