Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:56:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4789…994a sports 1414 markets active 0h ago coverage 94d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 94d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$46,338 (-2%) realized −$46,519 · open +$181
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate81%1137W / 275L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,742per market
Trades / day25.9pace
Fees−$2,426est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$15,181now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$256
7 days+$1,328
14 days+$2,311
30 days+$21,740
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$49,996
sports 30% −$288
world 2% +$639
crypto 0% −$1,214
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -5.1% -14.2% 88% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 795 -0.8% -10.2% 86% 10% -6.6%
≤90d 1362 -1.7% -11.1% 82% 18% -11.4%
all 1412 -2.0% -11.3% 81% 18% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 18% -11.4%
10% -19.8% 6% -19.9%
15% ← realistic here -27.6% 3% -27.6%
20% -34.7% 2% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$211 vs −$1,059 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$15,181
Realized−$46,519
Unrealized+$181
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses1137 / 275
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$2,426
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1412 / 1414
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$1,742
Trades / day25.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1412 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 Over 97¢ 100¢ $10,000 $10,256 +$256 (+3%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 86¢ $5,000 $4,925 −$75 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $5,007 +$256 +5%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10,021 +$732 +7%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10,015 +$511 +5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10,015 +$511 +5%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10,019 +$640 +6%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $10,010 +$332 +3%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $5,003 +$89 +2%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10,015 +$511 +5%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $5,009 +$311 +6%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19,017 +$562 +3%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5,000 +$6 +0%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10,002 +$81 +1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10,010 +$350 +4%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $18,012 +$401 +2%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,002 +$62 +6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10,011 +$357 +4%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $701 +$28 +4%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $7,015 +$504 +7%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10,020 +$683 +7%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $9,019 +$671 +7%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5,028 −$3,520 -70%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10,018 +$620 +6%
CD Coquimbo Unido vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $501 −$501 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5,027 −$2,881 -57%
Audax CS Italiano vs. CD La Serena: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $500 +$11 +2%
Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $500 +$5 +1%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $10,024 +$846 +8%
COD Meknès vs. RCA Zemamra: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $501 +$20 +4%
Difaâ Hassani El Jadida vs. Olympic Dcheira: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $300 +$2 +1%
FathUnionSport vs. Maghreb AS de Fès: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $100 +$3 +3%
OC Safi vs. Kawkab AC: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $10,023 +$796 +8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $1,000 +$10 +1%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $500 +$4 +1%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $100 +$2 +2%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $500 +$10 +2%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $501 +$19 +4%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $501 +$24 +5%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $501 +$30 +6%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $501 +$48 +10%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $1,003 +$90 +9%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $500 +$7 +2%
Togo vs. Benin: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $500 −$500 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $501 −$501 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $500 +$5 +1%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $500 +$12 +2%
Will Iceland win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $801 +$25 +3%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $1,001 +$30 +3%
RCA Zemamra vs. UnionTouargaSports: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $100 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $5,018 15m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $5,005 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $5,003 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $5,007 9h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $10,021 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 95¢ $10,015 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $5,007 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $5,007 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $5,003 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $5,007 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $10,019 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $2,501 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $2,501 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $5,007 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $5,007 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $5,009 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $10,176 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $9,008 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $10,010 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 100¢ $5,000 4d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 99¢ $5,001 4d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 99¢ $5,002 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $10,010 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $9,570 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $8,006 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $10,007 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,002 5d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $7,519 5d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 96¢ $701 5d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $7,015 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,181.09 · official $15,181.09 (match) · 3500 history records